PdP,
I would echo the sentiment expressed by Ernst. Myself, I try as much as possible to follow backtested strategies, and I ignore the opinions of prognosticators. In fact, I make a conscious effort to ignore my own opinions if I have any :-)
CXO Advisory group tracks predictions made by about 60 well known ‘market gurus’ whose opinions are expressed in publicly available material. As a group, on the average, 48% of their predictions proved to be correct. The best are at a prediction win rate of about 65% .
At any point in time you will find some prognosticators – as well as anonymous traders - that say ‘bull’ and some that say ‘bear’.
Will Dr. Elder’s prediction materialize? I do not know. No one does. When I trade a system or follow an indicator I know it will not be right all the time. But the indicator or system do not have an opinion that needs to be proven right or wrong - the intention in using them is to make trades with the expectancy of positive results over time. It might be better to follow over years a trading system based on Dr. Elder’s indicators than to follow his expressed opinion at random.
At this point in time, indicators with long backtested history I look at indeed signal warning, and are on the verge of pulling the full exit trigger for long positions. Pascal’s 20DMF turned short. We may be just at the start of a bear market. Or we may not. Next week or next month the indicators may show something different, and I will act accordingly.
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Originally Posted by Rembert
