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Thread: Mousetrap 3/24/2012 -- why market timing doesn't work

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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
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    Bloomfield, Michigan, USA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timothy Clontz View Post
    ... I’m now mining data to find the ideal holding period. So far it appears to be around 558 days per trade ...

    Tim,

    Is that 558 calendar days or 558 trading days?

    Neil

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Location
    Long Island, New York
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    558

    Calendar days.

  3. #3
    Join Date
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    New Jersey
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    What about frequent trading within a Roth? As I understand, as long as you don't trade the same equities with other accounts (avoid wash sales) you can trade as frequent as you want without tax implications.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
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    Long Island, New York
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    Roth

    Yes, an IRA account avoids the tax burden, but not the frequent trading costs. It's those little 9 dollar transaction costs that kill you.

    A system has to beat the market AND taxes AND transaction costs AND inflation to truly "beat the market". I think Billy and Pascal can do that, but most people can't do it on their own unless they use a fundamental approach, instead of a technical one.

  5. #5
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    Tarzana, CA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timothy Clontz View Post
    Yes, an IRA account avoids the tax burden, but not the frequent trading costs. It's those little 9 dollar transaction costs that kill you.

    A system has to beat the market AND taxes AND transaction costs AND inflation to truly "beat the market". I think Billy and Pascal can do that, but most people can't do it on their own unless they use a fundamental approach, instead of a technical one.
    I don't really understand the transaction cost problem. My position sizes are usually >$100K and I wait for 20-25% profits to be had. I time the market all the time and transactions costs are nil. If I trade 100-200 times a year my costs at $7 per trade is $700-$1400, much-much less than the profit on a single trade.
    Mike Scott
    Cloverdale, CA

  6. #6
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    Dec 1969
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    New Jersey
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    Commission Free ETFs

    For those who trade ETF's and are not aware, many brokerages (Charles Schwab, E*TRADE, Fidelity, Firstrade, Interactive Brokers, Scottrade, TD Ameritrade and Vanguard) offer free ETF trades: http://etfdb.com/type/commission-free/fidelity/ Fidelity offers free trades for our friendly Robot ETF ... IWM

    Fidelity Roth IRA + IWM Robot = tax and commission free trades!
    Last edited by Harry; 03-26-2012 at 07:56 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 1970
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    Las Vegas, NV
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    Harry,

    Do be sure to check for short-term trading fees with any commission-free etf program, which may be assessed if the fund is held less than a specified period of time (usually 30-days). There are also no-transaction fee mutual funds at many firms, but the transaction fee will be assessed upon not meeting the holding requirements, too. The cutthroat nature of the brokerage business has dramatically decreased commission costs and simultaneously improved many platforms, and that seems overall beneficial for retail customers, though.

    Best,
    Eric

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 1970
    Location
    New York, NY
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    191

    Free?

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry View Post
    For those who trade ETF's and are not aware, many brokerages (Charles Schwab, E*TRADE, Fidelity, Firstrade, Interactive Brokers, Scottrade, TD Ameritrade and Vanguard) offer free ETF trades: http://etfdb.com/type/commission-free/fidelity/ Fidelity offers free trades for our friendly Robot ETF ... IWM

    Fidelity Roth IRA + IWM Robot = tax and commission free trades!
    It never cn be really free if there is no cost charged then they have some small print which will allow them to put the account balance at risk. Or they have to do something with less attractive fills. Free trading seems to me just impossible.

    But there are enough brokers who charge 1ct per share (on way) even in brokerage accounts. I use TOS and have 1ct per share

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