Neutral Day For GDX Money Flow - March 22,2012

[Billy]

The Precious Metals Sector Money Flow finished the day unchanged at -0.50% and closed 0.30% away from the average MF + porosity (+0.13%) threshold needed to trigger a long signal for the GDX robot. Even a stable Money Flow from now on could trigger the long signal soon because the average MF is declining by -0.10% a day.

With a neutral MF and yesterday’s Monthly S2 (50.09) key support unable to hold within a strong downtrend, I still view Monthly S3 (47.50) as the most logical final capitulation target for the month of March. Pre-market is pointing to a new gap down and it might revisit Tuesday’s lows around Weekly S1 (48.66). The two support clusters have a total strength of 9 equal to the first resistance cluster alone and many professional floor algorithms will take this into account in case of liquidity problems or a lack of bids from large players. But the RT long bias stays active and doesn’t show signs of a new selloff at this stage.

I am waiting in cash for the next episode. I have no intention to short and I am ready to buy back my long position on a confirmed buy signal.
Billy

[DJones]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

[Billy]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

[Billy]

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

And if a buy signal is triggered at the average + porosity, a short signal would be triggered if MF falls back below the average - porosity or currently -0.42-0.13= -0.55%.
Billy

[pdp-brugge]

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

[Billy]

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy

[Billy]

If we anticipate that the average MF will be 0.10% lower tomorrow, a buy signal will be at
-0.52 +0.13 = -0.37% and a protective short signal would follow at -0.52 -0.13= -0.65%.
So, if MF stabilizes until the close at or above -0.37% the long signal could be triggered at the open tomorrow, but would need to stay there until the close tomorrow for a long EOD signal.
Billy

[Wei]

Looks like the EOD robot will switch to long pos too (if no surprise comes in the last 5 min.)

[davidallison@gmail.com]

I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.

[DJones]

I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.

Unfortunately, I agree. Enthusiasm tempered.

I'm still looking at price decline in the GDX from 50.11 with MF at -0.86% to 48.74 with MF at -0.44%. Money has come in, and fairly steadily, and the price has had a couple of big gaps down. For me, a good test of the fundamental approach.