GDX Robot and RT model - March 21, 2012

[Billy]

Yesterday’s GDX gap down was convincingly bought by large players and seems to have been a last shakeout of weak hands and of a certain over-leveraged Billy before a possible “ from false moves come fast moves” reaction.

The PM Money flow closed at -0.54%, just shy of a declining average money flow at -0.23% before Wednesday’s open. If large players do follow-through today, there is a good chance to see a cross of the average MF. If the day closes above the average MF + porosity (+0.13%), the EOD GDX robot will cover its short position and enter a new long position at the open tomorrow.

The RT model will stay long but would revert to a short if GDX falls back intraday below the average MF – porosity (-0.13%) after reaching the average MF + porosity (+0.13%).
So, there is a possibility that both models will be either long or short and in harmony tomorrow.

Technically, Monthly S2 (50.09) is still the key floor level to conquer and hold. The 5-day VWAP (50.02) or the average price paid by buyers since the last RT long signal could act as another key suppot/resistance today.
Still no advised setup in IWM.
Billy

[davidallison@gmail.com]

These numbers are from Pascal’s December Direction Model Improvement pdf. It is interesting this will be the 13th day the EOD robot has been in the short mode, with the average EOD short time of 9.62 days from a zero cross over. With the RT robot it’s the 5th day long. To me this says odds are in favour of both ending in the long mode very soon, with a cautionary note of going short. Also, odds of the long trade succeeding are 77%. If there was ever a time to go seriously long, it would be on this cross over. IMHO

Dave

[Pascal]

These numbers are from Pascal’s December Direction Model Improvement pdf. It is interesting this will be the 13th day the EOD robot has been in the short mode, with the average EOD short time of 9.62 days from a zero cross over. With the RT robot it’s the 5th day long. To me this says odds are in favour of both ending in the long mode very soon, with a cautionary note of going short. Also, odds of the long trade succeeding are 77%. If there was ever a time to go seriously long, it would be on this cross over. IMHO

Dave

Since the distance to the closest signal (reverting to cash) is more than 3 days away, I will try to force the RT GDX MF into the EOD status (Short status). This way, the system will calculate the distance to the next long signal.



Pascal

[Pascal]

Since the distance to the closest signal (reverting to cash) is more than 3 days away, I will try to force the RT GDX MF into the EOD status (Short status). This way, the system will calculate the distance to the next long signal.



Pascal

Attachment 13506

Just did!

[Billy]

It is interesting to note that the Volume % Change today is the highest in GDX itself, well above all stock components. Pascal, does it hint something to you?
Here is the ranking by % Volume Change (from eIBD)
Billy
GDX.xls

[Pascal]

It is interesting to note that the Volume % Change today is the highest in GDX itself, well above all stock components. Pascal, does it hint something to you?
Here is the ranking by % Volume Change (from eIBD)
Billy
Attachment 13508

This volume was printed early in the day (See red arrow). After that, it is has been a slow drifting.
It is interesting that the GDX MF also detected buying at the components level at the same period.

I have no other interpretation than a large fund bought a few shares.


Pascal