Kibitzers' Corner

[nickola.pazderic]

From Wikipedia: A kibitzer is a non-participant who hangs around a game, offering (often unwanted) advice or commentary. This Yiddish term is used in Contract bridge, Chess, Go, and many other games.
Kibitz is also a term referring to circular commenting. One person comments, then the other person comments. A back-and-forth conversation outside the main issue, where the people having the conversation are not directly participating

I'm starting this thread for all who might have ideas, feelings (Trev!), confessions etc. that they'd like to share in relation to the robots. If you have specific questions, post them on Billy's thread. Specific suggestions about programming, back-testing, etc., should be posted in Pascal's daily comments. In this thread we can send semi-random signals about the robot and ourselves. Leaders are most welcome-- but please don't feel obliged to respond. Also, I can't be around to monitor the thread all day (I feel responsible for it). So-- while all nearly random robot signals are welcome, please avoid politics and religion.

I'll start: I bought shares of TVIX at 19.28. This is not condoned by the robot. (insert smiley face). But the upside looks huge; that is, it is a "jumping out of the first floor window trade."

[manucastle]

From Wikipedia: A kibitzer is a non-participant who hangs around a game, offering (often unwanted) advice or commentary. This Yiddish term is used in Contract bridge, Chess, Go, and many other games.
Kibitz is also a term referring to circular commenting. One person comments, then the other person comments. A back-and-forth conversation outside the main issue, where the people having the conversation are not directly participating

I'm starting this thread for all who might have ideas, feelings (Trev!), confessions etc. that they'd like to share in relation to the robots. If you have specific questions, post them on Billy's thread. Specific suggestions about programming, back-testing, etc., should be posted in Pascal's daily comments. In this thread we can send semi-random signals about the robot and ourselves. Leaders are most welcome-- but please don't feel obliged to respond. Also, I can't be around to monitor the thread all day (I feel responsible for it). So-- while all nearly random robot signals are welcome, please avoid politics and religion.

I'll start: I bought shares of TVIX at 19.28. This is not condoned by the robot. (insert smiley face). But the upside looks huge; that is, it is a "jumping out of the first floor window trade."

Hi Nickola,

I am finding it rather difficult to reply to your post. I have mixed feelings with an excellent Robot yearly portfolio performance but an extremely poor last 3 months performance and watching GDX take off without me ! :O(

(Feelings are a luxury we cannot allow in the market of course.)

I will focus on my yearly results and be happy :O)

Trev

[nickola.pazderic]

Trev--

You have my company.

If things keep up like this, I might be outta money. This is one Livermore experience (of many actually) that I don't want to have. In fact, I won't come close to it. I'll sack myself before my spouse does.

I'm no engineer, just a dumb social scientist and musician. I don't hear music in the spheres of the market. I sense instead a global free-for-all pyramid scheme of sorts. I am involved from a stand point of sheer brutal practicality. Practically speaking, I've been brutally shaken.

I'm glum.

[Billy]

Trev--

You have my company.

If things keep up like this, I might be outta money. This is one Livermore experience (of many actually) that I don't want to have. In fact, I won't come close to it. I'll sack myself before my spouse does.

I'm no engineer, just a dumb social scientist and musician. I don't hear music in the spheres of the market. I sense instead a global free-for-all pyramid scheme of sorts. I am involved from a stand point of sheer brutal practicality. Practically speaking, I've been brutally shaken.

I'm glum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKBRjZdy8WY

Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

And in these simple tones, I hear you, Billy, too.

[mingpan.lam]

Hi Trev and Nickola,

I started to follow both robots from 1Jul2011 and tried 100% mechanical but occasionally, I reduced the position by following Billy and Pascal's advice. And here's the PL% of my trade results,

IWM : -0.35%(last year)-2.18%(this year up to now) = -2.53%
GDX : -1.17%(last year)+(0%) (this year up to now)

Trev : I shared the same feeling as you, GDX take off without me.

I hope the future will be better with the recent improvement.

Cheers,
Ellis

[Pascal]

Hi Trev and Nickola,

I started to follow both robots from 1Jul2011 and tried 100% mechanical but occasionally, I reduced the position by following Billy and Pascal's advice. And here's the PL% of my trade results,

IWM : -0.35%(last year)-2.18%(this year up to now) = -2.53%
GDX : -1.17%(last year)+(0%) (this year up to now)

Trev : I shared the same feeling as you, GDX take off without me.

I hope the future will be better with the recent improvement.

Cheers,
Ellis

The main question is why not taking a position in GDX or closing it earlier?
I entered into a second GDX position at arund 54 and closed it at about that price, but kept the initial GDX position as per the robot's instructions.

For me, keeping a long GDX and a short IWM is sound, because it hedges against any sudden market melt down or melt up.



Pascal

[Billy]

I found the attached pdf as conveying important fundamental truths about trading the robots.
I'm sure it will address many concerns discussed in this thread for a discretionary use of the robots signals.
You need to get the execution of trades correctly day in and day out,
because there’s just one or two missed opportunities which get away that could have made your
month or there can be mistakes that can take away weeks and weeks of profitable work. This is
where the use of good automated trading software can control some of these variables.
Billy

Harmony market.pdf

[nickola.pazderic]

I appreciate all the insights and help.

Upshot. Simple is difficult; and difficult is simple. To feel in-sync with the market is the greatest feeling; the difficulty of making money suddenly becomes simple. All can turn in a flash via the poor execution of a robot trade. The simple, being on the side of the market with the robot, becomes exceedingly difficult. The smallest inaccuracies produce compounding failures.

I'm back to square one. Lucky for me, it is only January. I will now add patience to a list of virtues I can practice.

I can't recall feeling so confused as I have while learning this craft.

[Neil Stoloff]

:O( (Feelings are a luxury we cannot allow in the market of course.)

Trev

Maybe allowing the feelings -- even reveling in the positive ones and wallowing in the negative -- will help us not to act on them (or fail to act because of them).

Neil