Kibitzers' Corner

[Neil Stoloff]

I can't recall feeling so confused as I have while learning this craft.

Nickola,

Embrace randomness and your confusion will melt away, replaced by a sense of awe and wonder at the limitless possibilities.

Or not.

Best,

Neil

[nickola.pazderic]

Neil,


To "embrace randomness" is an interesting idea. But isn't an embrace of it a little like grasping an avocado seed? The tighter one grips, the more likely it is to slip away?

Then what remains? Randomness without embrace?

Without embrace what becomes of us?

[Rembert]

Perhaps the whole universe including us is random so I wouldn't worry about that :)

In all seriousness, it's actually very easy to follow the robots in a relax way. Since the robots have an initial stop loss one can objectivly position size every trade to the same account % risk. Choose an account % risk you are psychologically comfortable with and that's it. Don't be greedy ... start with a small account % risk and increase it as success follows.

http://www.iitm.com/sm-position-sizing.htm

[ernsttanaka]

Nick,

I saw your original post on this thread -- One sentence I read a couple of year ago came to mind.

"You never can be a free man if you don't trade your own systems" -- the article went further that if you needed others for trading signals you run the risk of one day finding yourself without a business; just because an 'outsider' decided to go another route.

Daily I appreciate Billy's and Pascal's post - their discipline is a guiding example (I fall short on the discipline to the repetitive aspects of our chosen profession). Mike and Paul are also examples (to me) on how to stay the course with a set stock picking method.

My start in this profession has been an uphill fight. It took me several YEARS to find a niche which worked and fitted my personality. For instance IBDs works - I am convinced years ago - It doesn't work for me because after analyzing hundredth charts I see a cup and handle in everyone of them. Trend follow works, but again not for me - I close the working trades to early so I never have a great runner and a great winner. Example I made "great" money with CMG and NFLX between 50 and 55 (lol); completely missing out on the rest of the run.

It is only after I found my niche and found the discipline to concentrate my trading towards that discipline that I started to make some head way.

I feel your frustration and can only say "stay the course" and try to claim your corner in this market. Tell me if I can help.

Ernst

[nickola.pazderic]

I wrote a summary of the year, 2011, and a plan based on my experience. I planned to make it a boring year and follow the robot simply in 2012.

First month result: epoch fail! This has caused me to question my decision and ability to follow the robot.

I recall that I did pretty well with CAN SLIM in early 2011. In fact, I set very high standards for myself through June 2011. The robot, however, put the question to me: How exact are your entries and exits? And how precise can you be?

These are important questions because I found a method that actually worked. In fact, I was rated in the top 10 several times on online paper trade games. The method was simple, I would pull the top stocks from each sector listed in the IBD online main page. At the time, I wasn't a subscriber; so I waited for new lists (tech stocks, new America, etc) everyday. I would take the top stocks and buy 25,000 worth. If the stock didn't work within the first day, I sold it and bought another. I called this the "throw mud at the wall method."

The big problem was "when does one sell?" Several times, I enjoyed real substantial equity increases only to see them pulled out from under me. Of course, I didn't understand this "profit taking" very much at all. I only did extremely well with SLV and AGQ because Gil Morales sent an email to us, informing us of his "dream" that it was time to sell silver. I don't have dreams of selling. I wish I did.

Oh robot! Equity accrued to my account in May and June, as I was short the market with TZA and puts, staying in the position after Dr. Kacher switched his model to neutral. It was the robot that put this all into question because it commanded me to buy when it seemed like the selling was going great. The robot trade did work spectacularly but not for me! I couldn't stay in the trade as we bounced along in accumulation mode, readying for a reversal to the upside.

In any case, my point is that the robot answered my biggest questions about buying and selling but it put all my acquired habits into doubt and suspicion.

I have many more questions in light of my experience, going so deep as to question the fundamental nature of my being: Am I willing to make money in this business or would I rather scuffle my way forward? I also ask myself: was it worth it to submerge myself in the ins and outs of the market, the economy, and social trends so I can find a slight edge? Can I be a better daddy if I let the robot inform my decisions?

My decision has been to take it easy one year and truly follow the robot. What can I learn from it? How will it improve my results? These are my new objectives.

I appreciate your offer of help Ernst. I'll contact you.

[nickola.pazderic]

without wit or sarcasam, writes:

Thank goodness we did not trend the entire session!