More Distribution - December 20, 2011

[Billy]

Forum Clusters 111220.xlsx

Monday was the “bad” day needed for IWM to close below the massive cluster of floor levels ranging from Quarterly pivot (71.25) to Weekly pivot (72.48). Their total resistance strength is 30, overwhelmingly superior to the first support cluster with a strength of 6.

IWM already closed there last Wednesday, but the 20 DMF had not issued a sell signal yet. Each day since then has been characterized by a gap open reversed into distribution by large players. Yesterday was not different and we’re back under the main cluster, this time with a robot short position and also a sell signal for a new position at a limit entry of 70.81. Another gap reversal today below support would lead many bulls to capitulate and a fast move down to Weekly S2 (68.46) would be quite likely.



GDX keeps falling quietly but surely and the trailing stop (55.48) is now below the initial entry price of 55.96. It is approaching a strong support cluster where a bounce might develop. There is no edge left for entering a new position.
Billy

[TraderD]

Billy, do you know if large players distribution plans are altered in any way due to opening above the resistance cluster today?

Trader D

[Billy]

Billy, do you know if large players distribution plans are altered in any way due to opening above the resistance cluster today?

Trader D

It is the third day in a row that IWM gaps above the cluster. Friday and Monday, large players drove it back down. So, if they change their plans, it will not be due to a gap up but to other reasons.
The RT 20 DMF is very strong so far today, but it seems unsustainable with the negative divergence developing on the 4-day rolling chart. Choppy choppiness again?
Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

Tick charts in 4 time frames are up; A/D and breadth impressive. If sellers don't push it back, it appears we'll have a trending day up. That is, the path of least resistance today is up. IMHO

[Billy]

Tick charts in 4 time frames are up; A/D and breadth impressive. If sellers don't push it back, it appears we'll have a trending day up. That is, the path of least resistance today is up.

Attachment 11977

Both NYSE and NASDAQ volume qualify for a CANSLIM FTD so far but it was the same at this time Friday.
Volume starts abating especially on NYSE.
Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

I follow top traders at Slope of Hope and Market Anthropology, and I have noticed a clear pattern recently: they place counter-trend days off key support with the intention to capture the over night move.

If I were long TNA from the close yesterday, it would be very tempting to take a 10% profit right here and walk.

Of course, I have no feelings. But I do suspect repeats of Friday are captured, if only indirectly, in the robot code.

Cheers!

[manucastle]

Both NYSE and NASDAQ volume qualify for a CANSLIM FTD so far but it was the same at this time Friday.
Volume starts abating especially on NYSE.
Billy

Attachment 11978

Strange behaviour in IWM today. Jumping all over the place. Is the Real Time Robot giving any more clues ?

Trev