Quote Originally Posted by Billy View Post
The robot needs sustained up or down trends to make its largest returns. I don’t really care if we are heading into apocalypse or into a new 1982 secular bull market. I am confident that the 20 DMF and the robot will capture such trends early. I would even prefer the apocalypse and take a small loss in this choppy sideways mean-reverting environment before cashing big in a crash.
Billy
If I understand correctly, you're implying that an extended choppy environment will inevitably drag the robot into a losing territory, yet in the long run, the mix of trends vs chops is such that the robot cannot afford to be left out of a position when the big swings materialize. It strikes me that the most recent trade could have been quite profitable already (rather than criss-cross above and below the entry price) if it were to have taken multiple ATR-size profits off the entry limits (e.g. 73.14->75.00 =~ +2.5%) but that would have required the robot to change its plan (it simply doesn't know the stats associated with that scenario). As you say, statistically there's that big swing chance awaiting that will dwarf all these small losses to chop so sticking to the robot plan, as tested, is the best course of trading action.

Trader D