Neutral Day, Bullish Confirmations – December 8, 2011

[Billy]

Looking at the A/D, breadth, and 15, 30, 60, and 240 minute $TICK reading, a price reversal would seem near. I wonder what the intra-day MF shows?

Attachment 11791

Looks ready to turn up for an afternoon rally. Stabilized from 13:00 pm without any negative or positive divergences.
I may be wrong of course but we are back near the very strong support cluster.
If they close above intraday VWAP, today's bottom buyers will be winners.
Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

If we break the horizontal support, at about 42.8, decisively, I would estimate heavy selling.

[adam ali]

Today is one of those examples where the 20DMF appears to be trying to find a bottom (according to Billy's chart above) and yet the $TICK continues to plunge lower.

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Billy,

It looks like Bob’s prediction happened regarding the failed bounce. May I ask if you were stopped out of your discretionary trade today? I say this as I’m still holding on and have indeed added to my TNA discretionary position this afternoon. I’m using the robot stop which seems so well positioned, however I’m curious to know if you were perhaps using the (65,5) volatility stop or something else on the discretionary side. Here’s hoping my wounds have a miracle cure and I don’t fall off the operating table tomorrow. Thank you for any comments. Always appreciated.

Dave

[Billy]

Billy,

It looks like Bob’s prediction happened regarding the failed bounce. May I ask if you were stopped out of your discretionary trade today? I say this as I’m still holding on and have indeed added to my TNA discretionary position this afternoon. I’m using the robot stop which seems so well positioned, however I’m curious to know if you were perhaps using the (65,5) volatility stop or something else on the discretionary side. Here’s hoping my wounds have a miracle cure and I don’t fall off the operating table tomorrow. Thank you for any comments. Always appreciated.

Dave

Dave,
I agree that Bob’s liquidity watch is the best I know and I am hoping like everyone else that he can soon become more RT active again.

I am still in my discretionary TNA trade and like you I don’t see a better stop than the current robot stop at 71.02. The 50 dma just rose at 71.09 and brings further cushion before a potential worst-case hit. Of course a sell signal from the 20 DMF is my other fail-safe stop.
As I said previously, barring being stopped out, my trade is intended for the “long run” and until stage analysis tells me to sell. Therefore, the volatility stop is way too short-term for such a trade. I am also a very aggressive trader and used to psychologically weather temporary large drawdowns when confident in a long term setup. I am aware that this may not be so easy for everyone.
That’s why we have the robot. And once again it proves to be a much better performer than my smartest discretionary trades!
Billy