Mousetrap 11/20/2011

[Timothy Clontz]

Secular Hold IAU & XLF 3.46%
Condition Bear Market Rally
S&P Target 940
Hedge XLU -1.33%

Position Date Return Days Call
SE 6/27/2011 8.92% 145 Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 7.10% 136 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -19.25% 128 Hold
GTAT 9/8/2011 -34.94% 72 Hold
CSGS 10/3/2011 17.74% 47 Hold
NLY 10/25/2011 -1.52% 25 Hold
DD 10/27/2011 -4.03% 23 Hold
AMGN 10/27/2011 -4.09% 23 Hold
KBR 10/27/2011 -5.28% 23 Hold
VG 10/27/2011 -22.38% 23 Hold

S&P Annualized -20.45%
Mousetrap Annualized -1.69%
Hedged Annualized -4.52%
Secular Annualized 7.35%

The market is a perilous place, and even the large gains I made in the earlier closed positions are getting negated by large drawdowns in the current ones. GTAT is particularly annoying, suffering from an association with Solyndra.

In terms of the broad market, Australia, Hong Kong, and Spain have extreme positive divergence in their money flow relative to price, while the dollar related ETFs are showing negative divergence. Everything seems poised for the dollar to go DOWN, which is perplexing unless somehow Europe gets a temporary respite from their troubles.

Even stranger, the US markets are also poised to go down WITH the dollar. Most peculiar.

It’s impossible to guess, and it is entirely possible that the divergences in money flow and price movements simply show that this is not a market driven by investors, but by political events that cannot be captured in any technical snapshot.

Market timers continue to get faked out, and I’m not sure who is actually profiting any more.

Everything’s a hold right now.

Tim