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10/27/2011 end of day
The market completed a bear rally to the 200 day moving average…
…and kept going.
I don’t have time for a full update, but the 200 day moving average is a good time to rebalance. I took profits on BKI, CFI, AGO, and DISH.
That leaves a 90% short position on XLF, and 10% each on six long positions:
SE
GTAT
NLY
CSGS
CLH
GCI
I plan to buy the following 4 stocks at today’s closing prices:
AMGN
KBR
VG
DD
Apologies for the sudden change, but I was not expecting the 200 day average to be breached today.
As for market timing – it’s a coin toss. Even above the 200 day moving average we have a bearish sector configuration, and in fact the sector rotation model now shows that we have progressed from Bear 2 to Bear 3:
XLY Cyclicals Bottom
XLK Technology Bull 1
XLI Industrial Bull 2
XLB Basic Industry Bull 3
XLE Energy Top
XLP Staples Bear 1
XLV Services Bear 2
XLU Utilities Bear 3 (here)
XLF Finance Bear 4
Services (XLV) is still the best long position on the model, and Finance (XLF) is still the short position (though it’s been punished severely these past couple of weeks).
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