Mousetrap 10/23/2011

[Timothy Clontz]

Just sold DISH at 25.99 for a 17.87% gain.

Sorry for no advance warning. Decided to take some profit after today's move in the market.

[Timothy Clontz]

Just sold BKI at 29.39 for a 17.05% profit.

[Timothy Clontz]

Added two more...

BKI for 17.05% gain
DISH for 17.87% gain.
AGO for 14.41% gain.
CFI for 4.10% gain.

Wasn't planning these, but we hit the 200 day moving average on the S&P, and paused. Seemed a good time to take two trades off the table.

That leaves me 60% long and 90% short at the moment. Will probably add some long positions, but not any today.

[Timothy Clontz]

The market completed a bear rally to the 200 day moving average…

…and kept going.

I don’t have time for a full update, but the 200 day moving average is a good time to rebalance. I took profits on BKI, CFI, AGO, and DISH.

That leaves a 90% short position on XLF, and 10% each on six long positions:

SE
GTAT
NLY
CSGS
CLH
GCI

I plan to buy the following 4 stocks at today’s closing prices:

AMGN
KBR
VG
DD

Apologies for the sudden change, but I was not expecting the 200 day average to be breached today.

As for market timing – it’s a coin toss. Even above the 200 day moving average we have a bearish sector configuration, and in fact the sector rotation model now shows that we have progressed from Bear 2 to Bear 3:

XLY Cyclicals Bottom
XLK Technology Bull 1
XLI Industrial Bull 2
XLB Basic Industry Bull 3
XLE Energy Top
XLP Staples Bear 1
XLV Services Bear 2
XLU Utilities Bear 3 (here)
XLF Finance Bear 4

Services (XLV) is still the best long position on the model, and Finance (XLF) is still the short position (though it’s been punished severely these past couple of weeks).