Thought I might chime in here, too.

I actively follow the Robot commentary and use Billy's daily posts as input for some discretionary trading decisions. But I was here long before the Robot so am much more familiar with the standard 20-Day MF Signals and tracking the sectors on the EV site. Employee trading policy is such that I have to hold positions for at least one day after purchase. Consequently, I am looking for moves that have at least a few days to move in the direction that I am positioned, at minimum.

One tool I use for determining when to sell a position is the Active Boundaries tool. First, I never "expect" that the Upper Boundary will be reached, but use that level to get an idea of where price might gravitate following a buy signal on both the 20 day and sector level. If you participate in the early thrust, then depending on the type of stocks one is trading, catching the initial 5-10% allows some time to let the position move in one's favor. Then one can proactively use the EV tools to determine opportune exits. This is simply a way of using the tools each evening for a determination of whether one's position is a hold or sell.

Pascal's comment of the day put me in "preparation mode" this morning, as I knew the day had potential to evolve into a "cover" type of situation. As the OB/OS oscillator moved into a territory where holding one's short positions became less favorable, I simply covered by midday and sold my puts, too. I didn't catch the whole move or cover at the low, but I got a pretty good chunk over a 6 day period. Nimble day traders are able to use the 20 day MF for intraday positions; however, my preference is to try and participate in the "thrust" of a move, whether positive or negative. Every so often, the stars align and the thrust can produce significant gains rather quickly. One can use the EV tools to determine when the thrust is waning and close out their position accordingly.

For a swing type position, I might suggest tracking the sectors and their respective components. As soon as a sell signal occurs, then increase your situational awareness. For example, look at the most recent short signal for the Fertilizers. That was a time to get short, and one could cover upon a "cover your shorts" signal, a buy signal, or a sector buy signal. Either way, catching the bulk of the move gives some flexibility and relieves the stress of intraday trading. I am really fond of becoming familiar with the components of some the sectors I track,too.

Besides this, short side profits come very fast, and they can seem easy. But the market will rip your face off if you hang around too long hoping. I also think the old adage of asking oneself if you would buy/short at the current levels can be useful feedback.

Best,
Eric