IWM Strong Short - GDX Stopped Out - September 23, 2011

[Billy]

Forum Clusters 110923.xlsx

“If the market wants to fool as many of us as possible, why not zig through the old closing Low a few times and give everyone a chance to lose money. I believe when the bottom is in, we will get a bit more of a bounce than we experienced today and no one will have to ask, was that a bottom? It should be obvious.” Wayne Whaley http://library.constantcontact.com/d...t+a+Retest.pdf

The continuing progress of the initial IWM robot short position allows our stop to trail lower at 69.19, just above the declining 5-day moving average (69.00).

Here we go again with our second day of very strong short signal with a limit entry of 66.88.
That limit waits just under daily R2 (67.14), the border of the first resistance cluster which shows the same floor strength as the first support cluster. After a relatively strong last 30 minutes of trading yesterday that regained the algo-buy level of YS1 (64.40) and an upside follow-through overnight, there is basically no serious resistance in the way of a bounce toward the limit entry price today. Let it come to you if you want to enter a new short.



GDX was stopped out at the open (61.07) and near the high of the day (61.23), breaking below a total floor support strength of 27 at the end of the day! This is much more than a shakeout and likely a pause of the uptrend for a while. The current most obvious support is the 200-day moving average (58.49), also the border of a strong first support cluster. No edge and no advised position. The GDX robot is in cash.
Billy

[Billy]

IWM is trading ex-dividend today. Can anybody help us find the exact dividend amount?
All related ETfs levels should be adjusted accordingly, but we need the exact dividend for updating the related levels.
Thank you in advance.
Billy

[mklein9]

Looks like $0.2498: http://www.dividend.com/dividend-sto...2000-index-fd/

-Mike

[Billy]

Looks like $0.2498: http://www.dividend.com/dividend-sto...2000-index-fd/

-Mike

Thank you, Mike!

[barbados11]

I confirmed that with I-Shares, 0.24984.

[Billy]

There is no real worry because the new entry limit is still 2.90% above current IWM price.
As a reminder, backtesting proved that it was best not to adjust IWM levels ex-dividend, but of course the limits on related ETFs shoild be adjusted for today only. The related ETFs limits on the robot page are best projected indications only, the real trigger is IWM hitting its own level.
Billy