Back to confirmed uptrend

[Mike]

GOOG has a low relative strength (RS = 70). This is not the stuff that great leaders show. It is in an industry group and sector that is lagging. IBD reports an E accumulation/distribution rating indicating heavy distribution.

GOOG may be going the way of Microsoft. In 1999 the talking heads were saying that MSFT was going to go on and on and on. Since then all MSFT has done is go sideways for 12 years. MSFT earnings have doubled since 2005 and the price has made zero progress. GOOG is a newer company its earnings have gone up 3-fold since 2007 with no price progress. This is positive anyway. The largest institutional owner of GOOG is the Fidelity Contrafund and they are net sellers of GOOG. Large player EV isn't bad however.

Here are characteristics of great leaders before they make their big run up in price:
Quarterly earnings growth in the most recent quarter > 40% above same quareter in the prior year (triple digit growth is much better)
Three quarters of EPS acceleration
Three quarters of accelerating instutional ownership
Relative Strength greater than 80% of all stocks
Stock is trading withing 15% of 52-week high (GOOG is below 200-day and 50-day.)
Good margins (I like to sum ROE and PreTax margin with sum > 50%)

GOOG doesn't measure up right now.

Ford (F)
I used to own F until it topped. Its last recognizeable pattern was a head and shoulders top. F is on my list of candidates to short if it can rally into resistance. It shows decelerating earnings and sales over the last few quarters. 2012 earnings projection is below 2011. I know F is trading at a rock bottom P/E ratio, there is a reason for this it appears. Going back to the characteristics of leading stocks, F doesn't measure up. It could work as a junk off the bottom play but with a relative stength of 15 and in new low ground. It looks too junky to rally off the bottom, at least so far. It sitting near the lows established by the 2010 flash crash, this could provide support and a place to create a bounce but my problem is that it just isn't bouncing and seems to be met with fresh selling. If you look at EV large players are not buying F.

[Andrei]

Thanks for comments, Mike.

It seems to easy to draw quick conclusions with very few facts, until you step in and explain the basics.
Especially for me, as I am a new trader some things may not be obvious, like seeing Ford power ahead for 2 straight years, and then accepting the fact, that this was perhaps more a liquidity driven run-up than a prominent stock coming back into light.


Regards.

[1bullseye]

Mike

What are the period(s) of relative strength that you consider relevant?
Really enjoy your tutelege!! Many thanks.