Distribution Day Warning

[Billy]

Big reversal day with a neutral RT 20 DMF so far.
NYSE volume is running 15%and Nasdaq volume 12% higher than yesterday .
HFT selling as Cumulative TICK is now struggling below its 3 reference moving averages (195 , 390 and 600 minutes).
Flash crash at the DAX losing 5% in 20 minutes on rumors of Germany debt downgrade quickly denied by all rating agencies. Yet the denial was not bought.
Irene troubles on the East Coast.
Bernanke speech tomorrow...
From an IBD study, if we get a distribution day within 3 days after a follow thru day, the probability that the uptrend fails is approximately 80%.
A distribution day would be confirmed by a close lower of more than -0.2% on major indices with volume higher than yesterday.
Billy