Condition Bear Market
S&P Target 970
Hedge XLE 0.32%

Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 -1.19% 86 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 1.40% 64 Hold
SE 6/27/2011 -5.22% 59 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -3.64% 45 Closed
CLH 7/6/2011 -5.95% 50 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -24.76% 42 Hold
AGO 8/5/2011 7.97% 20 Hold
DISH 8/10/2011 -1.42% 15 Buy
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
Mousetrap Return -4.10%
S&P Return -9.74%
Hedged Return -3.82%

Mousetrap Annualized -31.45%
S&P Annualized -74.67%
Hedge Annualized -29.31%

Annualized Advantage 43.21%
Hedged Advantage 45.36%

Tomorrow is Jackson Hole, where Ben Bernanke will confirm that the economy is not bad enough to warrant another round of Quantitative Easing. Granted, he’ll have something else he’s doing under the table, but the time for bluffing and pushing the market is over.

Expect more volatility, perhaps a strange calm for a brief while – and then the bear resumes.

XLE (energy) continues to be the short sector.

XLK (technology) continues to be the long sector.

We may still see a rally, but rallies are profit taking or shorting opportunities.

The hurricane hits my house on Sunday. I could lose power for a few days. If I don’t post right away, everyone please be safe.

Tim