Condition Bear Market
S&P Target 975

Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 5.91% 76 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 4.41% 54 Hold
SE 6/27/2011 -4.31% 49 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -1.34% 41 Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 -3.25% 40 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -21.09% 32 Hold
AGO 8/5/2011 -3.23% 10 Hold
DISH 8/10/2011 6.85% 5 Buy
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
Mousetrap Return -2.01%
S&P Return -5.87%

Mousetrap Annualized -19.10%
S&P Annualized -55.85%

Annualized Advantage 36.76%

First, the Mousetrap model – after a few days below the performance target range, it is back to outperforming the S&P by more than 30%.

Next, the S&P itself – my sector configuration model is showing a progression in the rotation through the bearish sectors. As they progress we get closer to the end of the bear. While that is still showing a bottom more than 200 points lower than the current level, that’s an immense improvement over the previous projection of 800. While 975 would be an uncomfortable dip, it is not as significant as what the model has been projecting.

We’ll see as we go. We still have not finished rotating through the bearish sectors, and until we do finish, the likelihood of continued drops remains.