Auto-Pilot Disengaged – August 8, 2011

[Billy]

billy

could the Robot be adjusted further to include day trading setups, I mean, the wild swings in this market is a day trader dream (60+ points) ?, or is it just designed with EOD data only and is not capable of intra daily data ??.
thank you

Hmatar,
Experienced discretionary day traders are the only ones who can expect to make a good performance and they are the only ones who should be hyperactive instead. I confess that I will try to be in that camp too.
An intraday robot can only be developped with the availibilty of a real-time 20 DMF which is still under development. It is an extraordinary technical challenge to finalize due to the millions of data to process and repeat every minute.
Billiy

[hmatar]

thank you billy, looking forward already for intraday Robot, hope you guys can handle the ton of data and able to produce such a gold mine...good luck

[adam ali]

Billy and Pascal,

Back in fall of 2008, the 20DMF issued a sell signal. Am I correct in understanding that signal didn't require confirmation from the inverse ETFs, which only came into play when the Fed entered the market through its POMO?

Also, in October 2008, the 20DMF gave a buy signal. In between the time it was short and then long, did the 20DMF fall into the pattern we're experiencing today, i.e., deeply oversold but not yet in buy mode? In other words, was it in cash?

If so, then the Robot backtest would have the Robot seeking a trade based solely on the LT/ST stats. Are those stats quite different than what we're seeing today? Did the Robots seek trades then or was it in cash?

I do understand and agree that relying on relatively few data points to trade the Robot makes no sense. My questions are more to gain a greater perspective on the contrast between 2008 and now in terms of the EV system.

[Billy]

Billy and Pascal,

Back in fall of 2008, the 20DMF issued a sell signal. Am I correct in understanding that signal didn't require confirmation from the inverse ETFs, which only came into play when the Fed entered the market through its POMO?

Also, in October 2008, the 20DMF gave a buy signal. In between the time it was short and then long, did the 20DMF fall into the pattern we're experiencing today, i.e., deeply oversold but not yet in buy mode? In other words, was it in cash?

If so, then the Robot backtest would have the Robot seeking a trade based solely on the LT/ST stats. Are those stats quite different than what we're seeing today? Did the Robots seek trades then or was it in cash?

I do understand and agree that relying on relatively few data points to trade the Robot makes no sense. My questions are more to gain a greater perspective on the contrast between 2008 and now in terms of the EV system.

Adam, Pascal may correct me if I'm wrong, but from my backtesting files, the short signal in September2008 was
confirmed very early by the TEV extension of the inversed ETFs even without POMO back then. Thereafter, until October 2008, all ST/LT settings have been SHORT and STRONG SHORT, never NEUTRAL and even less LONG NEUTRAL like today.
There is absolutely nothing comparable between the 20DMF signals and LT/ST settings in September 2008 and today. We can therefore legitimately expect that the outcome could also be very different than 2008.
Billy