30 Year T-Bonds - Intermediate term trend change imminent?

[EB]

@adam ali: yes, 10 months.

@asomani: over the last few years, lower yields have indeed been concurrent with headwinds in equities. Generally, this is from the flight to quality effect, as derisking has led to inflows into Treasurys. My statement about decoupling is that long term Treasurys are slowly losing this flight to quality status. Similar to how gold now trades on its own (not selling off with risk markets), I expect Treasury correlations that have held to break. Also, the transition of a secular (decade or longer) trend is a big deal and takes years to play out. Gold made its secular turn nearly a decade ago and has less resistance. Once it is clear that LT Treasurys have transition into a secular bear (secular bull in yields) we will see some incredible moves in interest rates.

@Nickola: The Fed influences the yield curve to a degree, and they have the most influence over the short term end. However, in line with my comments above, once the bond vigilantes sense the secular trend is changing, there is not much the Fed can do and we will have double digit rates across the curve.

@andrei: Cycles are not my forte. I simply look to see what works for a given market.

[nickola.pazderic]

EB--

My sense of humor during these times is a little whacked.

In any case, I have seen reports of negative interest rates on Zero Hedge. (As one commentor put it: "paying the government to keep their money out of stocks").

I also know I've tried to short treasuries all year with little success.

As an investor, I've gone flat all risk assets. Unfortunately, due to regulations in a state retirement account I manage, I'm still long bonds. I'd rather be flat even bonds, but I must wait a few days before I can return to cash (i.e., a money market-- another riskier asset in light of present liquidity problems-- sigh). As I wait, I am left smoking hopium/ or cheering on the bonds in their parabolic move. Since I still think bond prices must come down, I depend on luck to keep the account positive.

Your charts are excellent, and I am spurred to wonder whether or not Trade Station is a better provider than Thinkorswim.

Nick