Mousetrap 7/31/2011

[Timothy Clontz]

To avoid confusion I've corrected the formula for annualized return.

I've corrected it to be:

Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 6.66% 61 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 7.17% 39 Buy
SE 6/27/2011 2.12% 34 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -2.65% 26 Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 -1.03% 25 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -6.25% 17 Hold

Average Return 1.00%
Annualized Return 10.89% (calculated by average return * 365.25 / average days held)

Last week I noted that my positive annualized return of better than 90% would be drastically reduced in the following week – and that’s exactly what happened.

This is a long only strategy, and merely rotates around industries. Unless congress completely implodes this week, the annualized number should return to positive territory by next weekend.

Of course, I may be over estimating congress (and they may be underestimating the market). Unfortunately, none of us have any control over that. We can only follow whatever method we use and ride out good hands and bad. Last week was a bad hand.

We are certainly due a bounce.

At this point it’s up to Reid. Boehner did all he could do. He gave one plan. Reid demanded a compromise, so Boehner gave him a compromise.

If Reid demands a compromise ON the compromise… then this will be a black week indeed.

The fate of the world is now in the hands of Harry Reid.

Maybe I should stockpile some food…