Mousetrap 7/31/2011

[Timothy Clontz]

Position Date Return Days Call
BKI 5/31/2011 -4.32% 65 Hold
CFI 6/22/2011 11.73% 43 Hold
SE 6/27/2011 -5.14% 38 Hold
AWR 7/5/2011 -2.99% 30 Hold
CLH 7/6/2011 0.90% 29 Hold
GCI 7/14/2011 -16.83% 21 Hold

Mousetrap Return -2.78%
S&P Return -8.68%

Mousetrap Annualized -26.91%
S&P Annualized -84.14%

Annualized Advantage 57.23%

I’m actually flat for the week because of a lot of hedged positions (I run three concurrent strategies). But the Mousetrap strategy is finally down -2.78%.

I’ve also adjusted the relative S&P losses to factor all of the equivalent prices for when I entered the Mousetrap positions. So, I’m only showing the S&P at a -8.68% loss.

In any case, I’m quite pleased to report that the model is presently outperforming the S&P at an annualized rate of 57.23%. While that’s a big change from yesterday – we DID just have the 9th largest day’s drop in history. While I do suspect we should have some kind of bounce because of the extreme oversold conditions, it probably won’t be a return of the bull market.

Both of my broad timing models have projected a bear since February 14th, but the market simply refused to collapse while Bernanke was able to keep printing money. He may do so again (he IS independent of the President and Congress). But unless he does so it’s safe to anticipate a continued market decline after a little dead cat bounce.

In any case, the Mousetrap model is an untimed model. It does not care if we are in a bull or bear market, but simply rotates positions based on their technical and fundamental positions.

You'll note that all of the positions listed are a Hold.

I may open a new position tomorrow, and will post immediately if I do so.

Tim

[Timothy Clontz]

Added AGO to the Mousetrap portfolio at 12.36.