Forum Clusters 110727.xlsx
The 20 DMF experienced only a slight weakness yesterday compared to the weakness in price for major averages. IWM closed right on its support trendline from the June 16 low, after bouncing three times intraday on its quarterly pivot (82.28).
Today’s total cluster support-to-resistance ratio is an extremely powerful 34 to 6. Our trailing stop (81.56) is waiting just below the monthly pivot (81.62) at the lower border of the first strong support cluster. With the turn-of-the-month bullish seasonal effect starting today and considering all the technical supports at play, a hit today at the trailing stop would really mean that irrational and random forces are now at play in front of the pervasive political nonsense! The lack of floor resistance is strongly suggesting an upside breakout of the trading range soon.
As Pascal mentioned in his GDX comment, there is still a very small statistical edge for holding existing long positions. However, the ST/LT edge is almost nil for a new position.
Total cluster support-to-resistance ratio is neutral at 22:22, but with much heavier technical resistance from the first resistance cluster with a strength of 20 vs. a strength of 8 for the first support cluster. Gold and silver futures options expirations are happening today and the precious metals may have some unpredictable gyrations.
Billy
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Originally Posted by davidallison@shaw.ca
