The current market conditions have now overwhelmed any developing long setup recently discussed. The only exception might be some gold stocks. While we were given a short, but tradeable rally in late June through the middle of July, that rally has fizzled and left us mired in the range, with increasing probability of breaking to the downside.
While a dead cat bounce may occur in the coming days, the damage done over the past two weeks is significant. As earnings season winds down, there is little in the way of catalysts that I see pushing the market higher. QE3 could prompt precious metals to move, but most stocks need much healing, which will take more than a few days or weeks. I intend to monitor various stocks and sectors, which may build bases while the market corrects. Meanwhile, current leaders seem increasingly vulnerable.
Please find attached my weekend notes. I had much more time to prepare throughout the week, so it is a bit longer. It has been a long time since 2008-9, but I highlight some scenarios for market leaders and possible outcomes if we are indeed moving into deeper bear territory over the coming months. Additionally, I review some recent stocks that were discussed and some shorting-lessons and observations. I also note the importance of recognizing flaws in one's analysis early on. Finally, I touch on a couple ideas regarding gold stocks.
If you don't get a chance to read through this, then most definitely check out Aly's Crowd Sentiment Index report.
Thank you Eric. This is up to the point.
I'd like to expand on your point regarding the energy companies attracting money.
As far as oil prices decrease (and the situation in Libya still points into that direction,) it is difficult to aggressively step in to buy oil related equities.
One method that I find rather useful in trying to value the different producers is to see how their equities have been performing in the past compared to oil prices (I divide the equity by the oil price).
Below are a set of such files.
Those that have a flat 200DMA (50MA Weekly) are viewed as producers "in line". These are usually large producers with reserve, whose price will depends more on the price of oil than on their outstanding execution. Most oil sands belong to that category: they do not have to dig new holes to explore for new reserves. They need to invest capital, reduce their production costs and try to sell their production as high as possible. You will note that the slope is slightly different whether you use US$ or Canadian$.
Out of these figures, the best performing stocks are easy to point. These are the stocks I am looking at. Of course, value and timing are two different things. You still need to buy at the right timing, but if you are wrong on the timing, you might still do OK with the leaders.
Thanks Pascal. I had not considered that before and will keep that in mind when looking at the energy sector.
I did see that the shale oil sector and oil sands sectors issued buy signals last week - in conjunction with the whole energy sector. This leads me to believe that a short-term bottom for oil prices may be at hand since their unconventional methods require higher prices to breakeven. If I am not mistaken, that price is somewhere in the 70's or low 80's, depending on each producer.
I have not had enough time to put together a meaningful review for the weekend. I hope to gather my thoughts on my days off this week.
I will be traveling this week and part of next week, so I have prepared some observations that I will share now.
The main gist is that there are going to be select opportunities on the long and short side, but some patience will probably be needed and rewarded while price action evolves.
I really hope everyone has had the chance to read Mike's CANSLIM commentary and Aly's CSI, both of which are really helpful for me and thus very appreciated.
With futures pointing lower, I think it will be important to see whether weakness begets buying. My report contains some observations from the past week. With sentiment moving lower and some signs of technical improvement, I think excessive bearishness could be dangerous. Meanwhile, there is still time needed for more repair and healing, which prevents too much bullishness. Some more range/base building might be good for a fourth quarter or earnings season rally, even if it is just a bear market one.
I'm hearing the type of chatter and buzz about gold and silver miners that normally precedes a big move in these issues, and will be watching with keen interest how the story on them continues to develop.
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