That is a good question. My main intention in collecting these observations is to really look at what the market is doing right now. The reason for an increased focus on the materials/energy sector was simply due to some interesting activity witnessed these past weeks after a period of underperformance earlier in the year. For example, when a stock like FCX all of a sudden jumps through two major moving averages with noteworthy volume - what might be going on? Is this strength an indication of not only a possible bottom, but perhaps leadership? FCX is a very large company with a big float, so it takes real buying power to move such a stock up with vigor.
Today the futures are pointing down. So we will see if these stocks hold their recent strength and attract money, even if the market sells off. Regarding the dollar, your guess is as good as mine. I've learned there are many assumptions and aphorisms built into the direction of the dollar and the subsequent impact on stocks. I prefer to just look at the market on a daily basis and through numerous timeframes.
Also, just to clarify, the securities highlighted are not implicit buys. While some might show legitimate buy signals depending upon one's criteria, others are merely highlighted because their action "says something" about the market as a whole.
Hello group. Please find available some weekend notes . . . I primarily am focusing on the long side since the 20 day MF is not under a short signal and enough leaders are holding up to give the benefit of the doubt to the recent advance. I recommend the articles published by Kevin Marder found over at Marketwatch, which are helpful and give a fairly succinct overview of some of the current leaders. A subscription to The Kirk Report is worth its weight in gold, as he provides a timely and helpful review each week. While I would have liked to add a bit more to the report, time constraints precluded me from doing so.
Hello friends. Here is my weekend review. I hope some find value in the observations shared. I am most interested in "getting a feel" for the market by examining "the parts," in order to better interpret the whole. I have to admit that I am most interested in becoming a better position trader and stock picker. It is a difficult task. My goal is to integrate EV, Stage analysis, and Sector analysis to find stocks that might be held for 1 week to a couple months or longer. I like to look at relative strength and catalysts, which often include earnings.
Once again, Charles Kirk and his Weekend Chart Show is a great resource. Also, I watched an interesting interview with Laszlo Birinyi, which in the midst of all the headlines, I found refreshing. That interview is found here: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...120034902.html.
I have put together my weekend review, which is a very useful practice for myself, and my true hope is that others, too, may follow along as we learn together.
I attempt to detail at least a few interesting developments that I notice from daily watching the market, both on my own time and at my job. I think the short side offers opportunity, but my experience in that realm is still limited and developing, thus I prefer to focus on what I see as opportunities in stocks that are showing some degree of strength and/or are transitioning from a bearish trend to a possible bullish or neutral trend.
The current market conditions have now overwhelmed any developing long setup recently discussed. The only exception might be some gold stocks. While we were given a short, but tradeable rally in late June through the middle of July, that rally has fizzled and left us mired in the range, with increasing probability of breaking to the downside.
While a dead cat bounce may occur in the coming days, the damage done over the past two weeks is significant. As earnings season winds down, there is little in the way of catalysts that I see pushing the market higher. QE3 could prompt precious metals to move, but most stocks need much healing, which will take more than a few days or weeks. I intend to monitor various stocks and sectors, which may build bases while the market corrects. Meanwhile, current leaders seem increasingly vulnerable.
Please find attached my weekend notes. I had much more time to prepare throughout the week, so it is a bit longer. It has been a long time since 2008-9, but I highlight some scenarios for market leaders and possible outcomes if we are indeed moving into deeper bear territory over the coming months. Additionally, I review some recent stocks that were discussed and some shorting-lessons and observations. I also note the importance of recognizing flaws in one's analysis early on. Finally, I touch on a couple ideas regarding gold stocks.
If you don't get a chance to read through this, then most definitely check out Aly's Crowd Sentiment Index report.
Thank you Eric. This is up to the point.
I'd like to expand on your point regarding the energy companies attracting money.
As far as oil prices decrease (and the situation in Libya still points into that direction,) it is difficult to aggressively step in to buy oil related equities.
One method that I find rather useful in trying to value the different producers is to see how their equities have been performing in the past compared to oil prices (I divide the equity by the oil price).
Below are a set of such files.
Those that have a flat 200DMA (50MA Weekly) are viewed as producers "in line". These are usually large producers with reserve, whose price will depends more on the price of oil than on their outstanding execution. Most oil sands belong to that category: they do not have to dig new holes to explore for new reserves. They need to invest capital, reduce their production costs and try to sell their production as high as possible. You will note that the slope is slightly different whether you use US$ or Canadian$.
Out of these figures, the best performing stocks are easy to point. These are the stocks I am looking at. Of course, value and timing are two different things. You still need to buy at the right timing, but if you are wrong on the timing, you might still do OK with the leaders.
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