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Thread: Eric's Weekend Review

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  1. #10

    Best oil producers

    Thank you Eric. This is up to the point.
    I'd like to expand on your point regarding the energy companies attracting money.
    As far as oil prices decrease (and the situation in Libya still points into that direction,) it is difficult to aggressively step in to buy oil related equities.

    One method that I find rather useful in trying to value the different producers is to see how their equities have been performing in the past compared to oil prices (I divide the equity by the oil price).

    Below are a set of such files.
    Those that have a flat 200DMA (50MA Weekly) are viewed as producers "in line". These are usually large producers with reserve, whose price will depends more on the price of oil than on their outstanding execution. Most oil sands belong to that category: they do not have to dig new holes to explore for new reserves. They need to invest capital, reduce their production costs and try to sell their production as high as possible. You will note that the slope is slightly different whether you use US$ or Canadian$.

    Out of these figures, the best performing stocks are easy to point. These are the stocks I am looking at. Of course, value and timing are two different things. You still need to buy at the right timing, but if you are wrong on the timing, you might still do OK with the leaders.


    Pascal

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    Last edited by Pascal; 08-22-2011 at 03:50 AM.

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