Short ideas revisited

[Pascal]

A few days ago, I suggested to monitor the following stocks as potential short trades, once the market rolls over - which is not the case yet. Let's come back to these ideas and see how they have behaved in the past days. Note that I will not reproduce here all the EV figures which can be easily found on the web site (click on Home, then USA then enter the ticker)



I will go through each stock, one by one: AIG, MAN, ETP, FLR, UTIW, VMC, WMS, STRA
Please understand that I am not changing my bias to shorting. It is juts a way to look at the other side of the market.

AIG

AIG just found support on its 50MA. It might continue up to its resistance zone (between 31 and 32).
It is shortable there is large players continue to neglect the stock.




MAN

Large players moved back in a few days ago. However, the stock boucned on its 50MA. The best strategy would be to short a bounce to the 50MA on weak EV pattern.



ETP

ETP has bounced back to its neutral zone on very weak EV pattern. We can see that if it continues up, it will reach a strong resistance level formed by the 200MA and the April/May bottom of $50. Shorting in that zone is a good strategy.



FLR

Large players in FLR revresed up and it now seems that FLR found support on its 50MA. It therefore looks more like a Long than a short play.



UTIW

UTIW reversed from its 200MA and the $20 resistance level. It might revisit this zone again if the market continues up next week. Large players are not supportive of a bounce.



VMC

Similar to UTIW, VMC bounce on its 50MA and the $40 resistance. Large players are selling and I doubt that the stock will reverse back-up. If it does, then you know were/where to short it.



WMS

WMS is not a clear short here, as short selelrs are scrambling to cover their position. Better wait and see what happens when the stock reverses back to its resistance zone around the 50MA.



STRA

Trading educational stocks has been difficult for me as I carry a very negative bias against them and hence, I would have a tendency to see them as shorting opportunities. The negative bias is that we see in Europe too many kids who get out of college with nice degrees but end up working in a restaurant or hanging around, because most companies have decided that they could do more with fewer employees. At least, Education is still free in Europe (or mostly free - translate as "taxpayer burden"), while the same college graduates must have been borrowing in the US and end up being "endebted broke graduates" working in a restaurant instead of just "broke graduates".

So, it is easy to view "educational" companies as mere dream sellers to kids who might end up in a nightmare.

Since I am over with this rant, STRA broke above its 200MA and would not be a short candidate unless the 200MA is broken again. The stock looks like a long play from here, but I will stay out because of my bias.

[buzzman]

For whatever reason I have a problem in opening the attachments. I've tried word and adobe without success. Then I looked for your previous post regarding the shorts but couldn't locate it. Can you tell me the date and/or subject of the thread? thx, bz

[Pascal]

I think that the original short ideas were posted in the daily commentary of July 5.

I fixed the attachments that did not seem to have loaded properly.


Pascal