"...I also recognize that my trading decisions are affected very much by my so-called feelings—that is, by my sense of rhythm at work in the market. How do I integrate the feelings and the macro-economic insights with the commands of a robot remains perplexing to me?..."
The question is how accurate your sense of market rhythm is. Collect the data and analyse the win/loss ratio, and calculate the expected returns vs risk. Then you would know if your 'sense of market rhythm' is worth following.
Last edited by Kenneth K; 06-16-2011 at 04:14 PM.
1. Billy's link made much sense to me. thanks again.
2. I'm trained in social analysis, music and linguistics. Cultural, social, and economic analsys makes sense to me; mathematics and programming are not my strong suits.
3. I'm very sensitive to sound.
4. I was also, at one time, a highly rated chess player-- no longer to be sure.
I have tested my ideas in paper trading, and my performance is consistently superior to my real-world trading.
I should also note that my results with Think or Swim since last year are literally zero.
On the other hand, with Vanguard's quiet grandpa technologically inferior interface, I reached over 40% in the first five and a half months of 2011.
I think some of my problem with TOS is that it overwhelms me sensually-- too much information and no real capacity, it appears, to reduce the static/noise.
Of course there are many angles from which to ponder such problems. Knowing I'm at wit's end gives me good reason to turn to a robot. Unfortunately, the robot closed me out of a good trade and told me to sit tight at the low end of a market!
many thanks,
That can happen with any single trade from any trading system. When N=1, the observation is meaningless.Originally Posted by nickola.pazderic
The relevent measurement is what the outcome would be in 20 trades and more. Based on the data, the Robot will shine.
But I wish I knew a way to contribute intellectually or otherwise to its success...
Now, I need to go buy a new lawn mower...
May be you can make a thread and share your sense of the market rhythm?
If I asked how I could integrate my driving style to improve the performance of my car, no one would have any clue about that b/c I haven't provided any information about how I drive.
The above comment brings to mind the fact that nearly everyone thinks they are an above average driver.
I wonder if traders think similarly? The harsh reality of monetary loss should prove to them otherwise.
In fact, as the responses point out any rythm that I may sense is entirely subjective and not universalizable. And yet, I had a clear sense that I was making a bad choice last week. The problem, to my mind is simply this: from a long term, fundamental decision standpoint, the robot is an exceedingly logical choice-- provided its programmers can adapt it to the feedbacks that it itself may generate! However, from the immediacy of my experience and sense of self and the markets, the long-term choice seemed unreasonable. This contradiction must occur to trend traders frequently, I suppose.
Now I will confess my intution for fun and perhaps profit: I took a large position in TNA at the end of the day. I can give numerous fundamental and technical reasons for this position, but when I made the trade I asked myself: does it sit/feel right? And the answer was yes.
Now I hope very much I'm in alignment with the robot. If, however, the robot directs a sell...I will take note of the irony and...probably put on the trade. I would like it much more, of course, if my sensibilities and judgments aligned perfectly with the device. But alas the human race has not yet evolved into such a cyborg!
Looking for to tomorrow's robot direction and Pascal's comments,
That happens to new drivers, and new traders. Beginner's luck.The above comment brings to mind the fact that nearly everyone thinks they are an above average driver.
I wonder if traders think similarly? The harsh reality of monetary loss should prove to them otherwise.
Nickola, consider the possibility that your "yes" answer made it more likely that you entered a bad trade, not a good one. The market doesn't care how you feel. I have seen reports (consistent with my own experience) from investors who follow a disciplined strategy that their best trades have tended to be the ones about which they felt the worst when entering them, and their worst trades came when they felt the best.
Cheers,
Neil
Billy,
Your comments really hit home as I fnid myself trading too much and have lost much confidence, trading on emotions. I'm even trading the robot signals too much! Regarding the most recent primary IWM robot trade on Fiday, and without getting too personal, would you lever yourself up on this trade, as the signals are quite strong?
Dave
Dave,
Your question is the main reason why we have added the LT/ST statistics to help traders who only want to take the strong signals or increase their leverage on such signals. About 80% of the simulated returns came from about 20% of the signals, coinciding with statistical strong buy LT/ST status.
However, the final decision is only yours. Surely, increasing leverage at an opportunistic vicinity of the current stop loss and using that stop after your entry can provide excellent reward/risk potential. But increasing leverage on strength may be a bad idea since we are still in a "dead cat bounces" environment and upside follow-through is far from certain at this stage.
Billy
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