Interesting Links

[Billy]

Nickola, the updated link now gives much more credit to your initial posting.
The 2007 scenario is now the second best fit historical pattern and is indeed weighing very negatively on the projected average scenario compared to last week.

http://www.etfrewind.com/members/Ponzo.png

I've been following the weekly updates of this most analogous chart from its inception and my subjective feeling is that it is often more a lagging indicator than a leading one. As long as we don't have a backtesting of past projections, it is difficult to draw any conclusions. Maxime is trying to do some backtesting with his own tools.
Anyway, projecting any market from only one year pattern like Zero Hedge did is certainly a flawed concept.
Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

Billy,

I'm very impressed with the analytical minds and training of some of the people here, including Pascal, Paul and you. The complexity is typical of engineers. And it is precisely this type of thinking that makes HGSI and Pascal's book difficult for me. This is not to say I have not taken my math and advanced logic classes and aced the crucial tests. I have. Given a choice, however, I'll see the world as a specialist in qualitative methods.

All my qualitative methods are set against the background of history and geopolitics (probably one reason I like Zero Hedge). As I noted to EB in a seperate exchange, I don't talk politics, culture or religion since I became a speculator. This makes it a little difficult to express my judgments because they can be so easily misconstrued.

That said, I'll make a bold and ugly political statement: the market and the entire edifice on which it stands depends heavily on American military power and its projection. Conservatives know this at least implicitly. And so-called liberals are embarassed by it but must accept it. President Obama understands this point, as did Clinton and every other president in recent memory. There have been no doves in the White House.

From the conquering of the American West to the non war in Lybia, there has not been a time when the USA is not at war somewhere defending its national interests. This fact may not be taught in American high school history books, but, trust me, people in Asia-- especially China-- know it well. Power comes at the end of a gun, as Mao put it. And every Chinese knows this, too.

So what is my point? Consider this fact, courtesy of ZH (but ultimately from Stratfor, a subscription service to which I subscribe):

Stratfor demonstrates, the CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush has just entered the Persian Gulf, the first time a US aircraft carrier has passed through the Straits of Hormuz in months. What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships. And topping it all off is that a third aircraft carrier, the CVN 73, is sailing west from the South China seas, potentially with a target next to CVN 76 Ronald Reagan which is the second carrier in the Straits of Hormuz area

Whoever controls oil, controls the global economy. Can anyone really disagree with this? (I bet some can, and I dread escalations of political aruments). In any case, a lot of power is lined up in that part of the world. By doing so, the president and the military are tacitly supporting a strong American economy and stock market. They know the biggest drag on GDP comes via high oil prices. Moreover, leaders in the USA know that Americans depend on a rising stock market for the retirement and that a poorly performing market will also prove a dead weight on American GDP growth. To me these facts are almost self evident. They are the background against which all current movements must be considered.

In other words, while all the noise inside the market and inside the media is sending confusing signals, the basic message remains: America and its allies are in control. As long as that is the case, the bias of the markets will be sideways to up.

In the meantime, we bit players will continue to make our meal money on volatility and trends, which will occur within ranges. If a carrier ever gets taken out, then all bets are off.

[ilonaross]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...d-default.html

[nickola.pazderic]

for the last week of July...

[ilonaross]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2857...cial-terrorism

Hmm... do we need a robot for accounting regulations...

Does anyone have an opinion? Should one of us on the board be trying to follow this stuff and report on it? Pretty arcane stuff...

Or is it already baked into the 20DMF cake?

[Andrei]

Very good Marc Faber interview on markets, on gold, on bonds etc.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-f...ctively-resign

[Adriano]

Soros on Euro bonds, Germany, USA, China:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...780189,00.html

[buzzman]

I have assets managed by Fisher Investments since 2002. They send me a Capital Markets Update quarterly. This most recent one may be of interest. Ken Fisher has been in the investment business for a lifetime, preceded by his father who was prominent during the Jesse Livermore days. By design, the video self-erases within approximately two weeks. The video is about 45 minutes long. Click on the following link. Hope it works and that you enjoy the information. buzzman

http://www.fi.com/weballey/autoexpir...0XjJaxSxVJg%3d

[ilonaross]

I wanted to put out a brief update to my commentary from last night.

The one positive I noted was that a few large liquid growth leaders were acting
"stubborn" and showing excellent relative strength. Indeed, these stocks bucked
the trend once again today, and led the major indices to close well off their
lows in somewhat of a positive reversal day. While the market continues to
sell-off, these stocks continue to base build and, at least for the time being,
are resisting the general market's distribution.

I noted that these stocks' behavior would offer a key clue as to the duration
and severity of this bear phase. I cannot underscore this point enough. Simply
stated, the seven stocks I noted, and a few others (listed below), will let us
know whether the bear phase ends soon, or whether the indices break recent lows.
As I noted, it would be foolish to prognosticate on the outcome and I will leave
that for others to banter about. For now, I note that it remains a positive
that these stocks continue to base-build, resist the selling pressure, and show
excellent strength.

In light of this, I am providing my first watch list in quite some time. This
is not a buy list, but merely a list of companies with superior fundamentals and
that are showing the ability to resist high levels of distribution in the
market. Should the market embark on a sustainable uptrend, many of these stocks
likely will be "go to" leaders. Of course, any continued selling in the general
market likely takes many of these stocks much lower. One should exercise
patience, for there will be ample opportunity to be aggressive on the long side
should the market decide to resolve itself to the upside.

AMZN, PCLN, ISRG, MA, AAPL, BIDU, CMG, GMCR, CROX, UA, LULU, HANS, MAKO, PSMT,
ARCO, CF, POT, NTES, ATHN, CERN, NUS, PANL, V, Z, LVS, WYNN, LNKD, AWAY, ALXN,
VRUS ,JAZZ, QCOR, PRGO, CPHD, SBUX, WFM, SBH, AZO, JCOM, CPA.

[Adriano]

Three days ago I was struck by this article:
China to back London as offshore yuan hub
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi...-ft-2011-09-07

Yesterday there was a comment on it:
Analysts skeptical about yuan convertibility
http://www.tradereform.org/2011/09/a...onvertibility/

A few months ago, Singapore was also involved:
Singapore Has a Leg Up In Trading-Hub Race
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...728891436.html

Singapore can be offshore yuan centre, but won't surpass Hong Kong
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7FB0GW20110411

What implications will there be, if China expands to Singapore as its second yuan trading hub after hongkong?
http://www.marketcrunch.net/question...after-hongkong

And so on, you can google and find other articles. I know nothing about forex, although it fascinates me. However, it seems to me that something is boiling. Not surprisingly, I would say.