IWM Gap Up and Expected Supports & Resistances

[ilonaross]

@johnboy, or anyone else for that matter.

MIDAS Technical Analysis: A VWAP Approach to Trading and Investing in Today's Markets is sitting on my bookshelf unread and collecting dust.

Anyone interested in an online study group of this book?

Ilona

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Billy,
Thank you for the reply. I called DirexionShares with the question of ex dividend dates for TZA/TNA. They don’t publish future dates and the only way to know for sure of an impending distribution, is to monitor their web site regularly, as it is announced shortly before the distribution. The only thing he would tell me is they do it quarterly, but it might not be exactly correspond to ¼ time or 90 days from the last distribution. It could happen at anytime!
As for ProShares RWM/UWM/TWM they gave a similar answer. One can sign up for email notification, where they said they give about two weeks advance notice of an impending dividend, or monitor the web site.

I’m a believer in the robot signals and very much appreciate your running commentary. The entry prices for robot trades have been excellent.

This is just referring to the most recent relatively weak short entry, (not entered) which quickly turned to a very profitable trade. It was a few pennies out, which probably didn’t matter statistically. I was curious to know if a ‘recent history’ pivot cluster might have changed the short entry price decision point. If the robot entry price is based on a daily pivots, the question is extraneous.

I will try to compare the robot pivot clusters you post, to a ‘recent history’ pivot cluster, and pass along anything of interest. To me, it’s a fundamental question which arises from watching the pivot clusters you post and the trading action of IWM.

Thanks again,
Dave

[Billy]

Ooops sorry I edited your post instead of replying to it. Billy

Bob,

Trend days are facilitated by very weak cluster resistances and even more if this characteristic is present the same day on all indices. This will be the case for IWM with a close above QS1 (79.32) and is already certain for SPY with a close above MS2 (128.69) and for QQQ with a close above MS2 (55.19).
I think the charts speak by themselves, just project what tomorrow clusters can be. All support clusters will be strong and all resistance clusters will be weak on all indices. Again, bad overnight news could negate the setup, otherwise the odds are for a trend day up. My definition of a trend day is a move from open to close with a range higher than the 20-day ATR.

Billy

Attachment 8800Attachment 8801[/QUOTE]

[happy]

Billy, thank you again for your excellent comments!

[Billy]

[QUOTE=happy;13457]

Any retracement that can hold at these 2 reference levels will be a most positive sign that the bounce has actually started and could last for more than one day.
QUOTE]

Billy, thank you again for your excellent comments! can you define a "reference level". is that 2 bars or ??

Happy,

Take a deep breath, concentrate hard, read my full sentences slowly, repeat as much as necessary and I'm confident you'll find the answer in your inner self,
Billy

[dario.lonati]

I agree with Roberto and all the others members.
Since I'm part of this group my trading life changed substantially.

Thank you to all of you!

"Holy Graal" or simply "Cup with handle": long and prosperous life to the EV group!

[happy]

Since I'm part of this group my trading life changed substantially.

I have to agree with dlonati ... it has changed my trading life as well ... thank you.

I vote for the "Holy Cup with handle" :)

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Billy,
I believe the next ex dividend dates for IWM are July 5th, 23rd September, 22nd Dec and a potential distribution on 28th December. This information is contained in the iShares 2011 Distributions Schedule. (hopfully attached) So this would impact IWM on the 5th of July, correct? The ex-date is 5th July, the record date is 7th July, and the pay date is 11th July.

I have a question about pivots and pivot clusters. Have you ever given any thought to monitoring pivots, other than intra day, to most recent data? So for example yearly pivots, would reflect the last 12 months, and therefore recalculated monthly? I have witnessed daily pivots working well. Yesterday’s IWM reversal at SI, with a very slight shake out, is a prime example. If we take a quarterly pivot, would S1, calculated for the last 3 months, not offer stronger support, then S1 calculated to the end of March? I am just struggling with the question of why, from the last trading day of June, to the first trading day of July, a quarterly pivot, support and resistance, should change so dramatically.

Dave

[Billy]

Billy,
I believe the next ex dividend dates for IWM are July 5th, 23rd September, 22nd Dec and a potential distribution on 28th December. This information is contained in the iShares 2011 Distributions Schedule. (hopfully attached) So this would impact IWM on the 5th of July, correct? The ex-date is 5th July, the record date is 7th July, and the pay date is 11th July.

I have a question about pivots and pivot clusters. Have you ever given any thought to monitoring pivots, other than intra day, to most recent data? So for example yearly pivots, would reflect the last 12 months, and therefore recalculated monthly? I have witnessed daily pivots working well. Yesterday’s IWM reversal at SI, with a very slight shake out, is a prime example. If we take a quarterly pivot, would S1, calculated for the last 3 months, not offer stronger support, then S1 calculated to the end of March? I am just struggling with the question of why, from the last trading day of June, to the first trading day of July, a quarterly pivot, support and resistance, should change so dramatically.

Dave

Thank you Dave. Yes, IWM will be impacted on July 5th and indicative limits and stops for related ETFs will be diifficult to make before the open on that day. We will comment on how to handle this in due time. We still need the same information for all related ETFs as they all have different distribution dates.

About your pivot and pivot cluster question, yes, it is interesting to track rolling timeframes like you are suggesting. And if anyone can prove an edge in doing so, I will be glad to investigate further.
What matters is to stick with what is working best for actual setups. The more levels you add to the system, like your rolling timeframes or Fibonacci levels or MIDAS and VWAP curves, the more neutral your setups will become and the more levels will be splashed all over the place on your charts. My definition of what is working best is what levels may be the most important in large players’s algorithms and what can really impact their trading plans. Actual experience and backtesting keeps proving that the current methodology is close to optimal, but I am flexible and open to modify the system with any proven additional edges.
Billy