IWM Gap Up and Expected Supports & Resistances

[EB]

Agreed, all. Billy, I'm interested in your empirical observations of how trend day up[s] setup ahead of the open. Any particular characteristics of the markets you look for other than what you wrote here?

[Update: thanks. -Bob]

Bob,

Trend days are facilitated by very weak cluster resistances and even more if this characteristic is present the same day on all indices. This will be the case for IWM with a close above QS1 (79.32) and is already certain for SPY with a close above MS2 (128.69) and for QQQ with a close above MS2 (55.19).
I think the charts speak by themselves, just project what tomorrow clusters can be. All support clusters will be strong and all resistance clusters will be weak on all indices. Again, bad overnight news could negate the setup, otherwise the odds are for a trend day up. My definition of a trend day is a move from open to close with a range higher than the 20-day ATR.

Billy

[johnboy70]

Billy,

What does VWAP stand for?

John

P.S. Oddly, enough I'm really beginning to understand everything you say. So, maybe there's some hope for me after all? Thank you very much for your patience and support!!!!!

[adam ali]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VWAP

[ilonaross]

@johnboy, or anyone else for that matter.

MIDAS Technical Analysis: A VWAP Approach to Trading and Investing in Today's Markets is sitting on my bookshelf unread and collecting dust.

Anyone interested in an online study group of this book?

Ilona

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Billy,
Thank you for the reply. I called DirexionShares with the question of ex dividend dates for TZA/TNA. They don’t publish future dates and the only way to know for sure of an impending distribution, is to monitor their web site regularly, as it is announced shortly before the distribution. The only thing he would tell me is they do it quarterly, but it might not be exactly correspond to ¼ time or 90 days from the last distribution. It could happen at anytime!
As for ProShares RWM/UWM/TWM they gave a similar answer. One can sign up for email notification, where they said they give about two weeks advance notice of an impending dividend, or monitor the web site.

I’m a believer in the robot signals and very much appreciate your running commentary. The entry prices for robot trades have been excellent.

This is just referring to the most recent relatively weak short entry, (not entered) which quickly turned to a very profitable trade. It was a few pennies out, which probably didn’t matter statistically. I was curious to know if a ‘recent history’ pivot cluster might have changed the short entry price decision point. If the robot entry price is based on a daily pivots, the question is extraneous.

I will try to compare the robot pivot clusters you post, to a ‘recent history’ pivot cluster, and pass along anything of interest. To me, it’s a fundamental question which arises from watching the pivot clusters you post and the trading action of IWM.

Thanks again,
Dave

[Billy]

Billy,
Thank you for the reply. I called DirexionShares with the question of ex dividend dates for TZA/TNA. They don’t publish future dates and the only way to know for sure of an impending distribution, is to monitor their web site regularly, as it is announced shortly before the distribution. The only thing he would tell me is they do it quarterly, but it might not be exactly correspond to ¼ time or 90 days from the last distribution. It could happen at anytime!
As for ProShares RWM/UWM/TWM they gave a similar answer. One can sign up for email notification, where they said they give about two weeks advance notice of an impending dividend, or monitor the web site.

I’m a believer in the robot signals and very much appreciate your running commentary. The entry prices for robot trades have been excellent.

This is just referring to the most recent relatively weak short entry, (not entered) which quickly turned to a very profitable trade. It was a few pennies out, which probably didn’t matter statistically. I was curious to know if a ‘recent history’ pivot cluster might have changed the short entry price decision point. If the robot entry price is based on a daily pivots, the question is extraneous.

I will try to compare the robot pivot clusters you post, to a ‘recent history’ pivot cluster, and pass along anything of interest. To me, it’s a fundamental question which arises from watching the pivot clusters you post and the trading action of IWM.

Thanks again,
Dave

Thank you for all your detective work about the ETFs distribution dates. We will also have to monitor yearly rebalancing of the Russell 2000 expected near the end of this month on top of the new monthly, quarterly and semester pivots. Now you wonder why top traders avoid trading at this time of year!

Please go ahead with your research on " recent history" pivot clusters. Something instructive will certainly grow out of it. This is something I would have already done myself if we had 48 hours a day!
Just avoid giving too much emphasis on isolated signals, only the long term average rate of success counts if you want to avoid random and outliers biases.
Billy

[Billy]

Ooops sorry I edited your post instead of replying to it. Billy

Bob,

Trend days are facilitated by very weak cluster resistances and even more if this characteristic is present the same day on all indices. This will be the case for IWM with a close above QS1 (79.32) and is already certain for SPY with a close above MS2 (128.69) and for QQQ with a close above MS2 (55.19).
I think the charts speak by themselves, just project what tomorrow clusters can be. All support clusters will be strong and all resistance clusters will be weak on all indices. Again, bad overnight news could negate the setup, otherwise the odds are for a trend day up. My definition of a trend day is a move from open to close with a range higher than the 20-day ATR.

Billy

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