US Dollar Worst Case Scenario

[ericoleman]

Billy,

Like Neil, I agree that it would be difficult to surmise a way to document why a future situation could not happen . . . I did watch the video and recognize the message, and although the presentation is plausible, it is also alarmist.

I attempt to remove myself from dwelling in these types of doomsday scenarios. Currency crises have come and gone (Mexico, Southeast Asia, Russia, Britain, Argentina . . .) Not to diminish what could be an ugly scenario; but from a larger perspective, life goes on. Some of these places have even emerged much stronger, particularly countries in Asia and Latin America. In the event of such an intensely chaotic period in the US, I like to remind myself that "from dirt grow the flowers."

Also, the video seems to have a gold/pm bias. While I recognize these assets as store of wealth, I find it difficult to believe that our electronic and internet connected world would find gold/silver acceptable as a viable method of exchange. I live in a state where gold is now legal tender, yet if I actually went to pay with a gold coin, I believe I would have a hard time doing so. Never have I seen someone attempt to pay with gold.

Ultimately, the imbalances are going to have to be addressed. Will it be the hard way or the easy way or possibly some middle ground? I don't think we can know until we know. If political will and market pressure emerges, perhaps some solutions can be found. Some viable suggestions I hear discussed include dramatically reducing defense spending, raising the social security age, increasing taxes, reforming medicare, and legalizing marijuana.

Best,

Eric

[nickola.pazderic]

Marc Chandler, who is a higher regarded contributor to Seeking Alpha wrote Making Sense of the Dollar

For a take on the actual advantages of the American economy and it global position see George Friedman's The Next Hundred Years

Cullen Roche should be read by a lot of people. But to sum up his argument in the most simple language: it is absurd to compare the debt of a state like the USA with a family and its debt/credit.

[ilonaross]

Gretchen Morgenson's "Reckless Endangerment."

Maybe if some of the behaviors she describes were curtailed we'd have a better chance of making things right.