Hi Billy,

Sometimes a question contains its own answer. Regarding future events that depend on human behavior, there can be no "systematic documented analysis" demonstrating why anything could not happen, much less a scenario -- like the one presented in the video -- that simply projects current trends to a logical conclusion.

Maybe a more meaningful question would be: "What could prevent such a scenario from playing out?"

On this topic, I know of two books that qualify as "documented analysis."

Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything, by John Mauldin; and

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Reinhart and Rogoff.

The short answer is that voluntary bubble deflation -- causing short-term pain -- would let society avoid much worse (involuntary) pain down the road. Unfortunately (alert: an element of opinion here), the first priority of those in power is to remain in power, making them incapable of taking action that's likely to result in their removal. It's not their fault: In a democracy, "we get the government we deserve." [Alexis de Tocqueville] We the People (present company excepted) would be the ones threatening to vote them out if they take the necessary steps.

For the VIT group, an even more meaningful question might be, "How would EV and/or the Robots fare in such a scenario?"

Not long ago, Billy, you suggested that we shouldn't worry about macro issues. Whatever comes, EV would keep us on the right side of the trade. Indeed, the chart on the EV home page shows that we can achieve outstanding returns even in otherwise dire circumstances. How confident are you that EV would hold up in the extreme scenario depicted in the video?

Cheers,

Neil Stoloff