A question about the actions of Large Players

[grems8544]

Mike,

I would have to agree with you. With the TradeStation plugin, different time scales other than 1 min bars certainly do give different signals / presentations than the 1 min presentation. I've been digging deeply into the TS plugin to determine if this is a coding issue or if this is actually what is occurring; my preliminary findings are simply that the TS plugin is set up to perform the calculations on the bar, and it is implied that the resolution is 1 minute. If other bar lengths are used, the TS plugin does not know the difference.

[ For those of you more skilled with EasyLanguage, please chip in here]

I'm not convinced that we should see consistency from 1 min to 5 min to 60 min bars. There are exceptions to this thought, of course, but in the general patterns that I'm able to watch at 1 minute resolution, many of them would become moot because the extension values, average above / below extensions, etc., would all change, and possibly not in synchronization.

I *do* believe that multi-timeframe analysis on EV is incredibly important, but this means specifically "where we are zeroing the accumulator". The book uses the 40d length; I use 40d as well as 8d windows, simultaneously, in TradeStation, to get a longer-term view of LEV/TEV support over SmEV performance, as well as a shorter-term view.

I'm constantly reminded, as I use the TradeStation EV plugin, that what we may be seeing may not be the actual behavior of the system, but until I (or others) can improve upon the examination tools, it's far better than anything that the masses have.

We have insight here that most, even the larger investors, do not have. I consider myself lucky.

Regards,

pgd

[Ellis Wyatt]

Pascal,

The current equities range obviously has us independent amateurs confused. I'm wondering if you have ever given any thought to intervals in which the large players act similarly confused? The below image reminded me of the book's IMAX example:



FITB is a regional US bank, not special in any particular way. They paid back the TARP, but nothing material has changed since the last earnings, which missed @ $0.10 v. expected $0.26 and lower revenues, on April 21.


The IMAX example was a case of false-positive, where value investors rush in, turn out to have mis-timed, and are then followed by bottom feeders (who may also turn out to be early). Have you, or anyone, seen this double-clutch pattern before in a case where there is no news of significance?

(I'm not buying, nor do I hold this name. But I've seen a couple of these double head-bumps lately, and they seem new. Unless it's just that I'm relatively new with EV and haven't seen enough permutations yet.)

[Pascal]

Pascal,

The current equities range obviously has us independent amateurs confused. I'm wondering if you have ever given any thought to intervals in which the large players act similarly confused? The below image reminded me of the book's IMAX example:

Attachment 8592

FITB is a regional US bank, not special in any particular way. They paid back the TARP, but nothing material has changed since the last earnings, which missed @ $0.10 v. expected $0.26 and lower revenues, on April 21.


The IMAX example was a case of false-positive, where value investors rush in, turn out to have mis-timed, and are then followed by bottom feeders (who may also turn out to be early). Have you, or anyone, seen this double-clutch pattern before in a case where there is no news of significance?

(I'm not buying, nor do I hold this name. But I've seen a couple of these double head-bumps lately, and they seem new. Unless it's just that I'm relatively new with EV and haven't seen enough permutations yet.)

This is a good question for which there is no good answer.
Statistically, if you buy in the direction of an increasing 3D EV and sell X-days later, the returns are lower than a Buy/Hold strategy. This means that EV has no predictive value when taken independently. (That observation was published in the VIT book). What is important is to use EV at the right timing: where the market/sector or stock hesitates, such as in a trading range or at a support/resistance level, or at an Active Boundaries limit.

FITB is really heavily traded. So we might have some funds buying and other funds selling, which means "no clear view" from large players.