Pierre,
1. MS1 is not an estimate and is the actual first monthly support for May. It is part of the support cluster for Tuesday only and its weight is included in the cluster strength of 13.
2. No, the robot does not make its decisions based on cluster strengths. They are used for multi-pivot stand-alone decisions. But it is better to see them confirm the robot probabilities.
FWIW, here are the expected cluster strengths for Wednesday if IWM closes unchanged on Tuesday.
The new (June) monthly levels will make a big difference in favor of the bulls. Billy
Pierre, you are correct. But clusters strengths are only valid for one day at a time. The real major resistance remains Yearly R1 (85.68) and Semester R1 (85.46) and the most likely area for a new top. Hence, an entry around 85.10 is not so risky as it seems at first sight.
Billy
You actually got my attention with this comment and for a good 10 minutes I have been staring at the chart you provided trying to coldly (froidement) evaluate the risk of that particular trade visually. It allowed me to appreciate the beauty of the cluster approach and make the hypothesis that the weights that you cleverly devised are really probabilities that the individual resistances will not be penetrated within a trader's investment horizon which I presume is relatively short.
When one focusses on the specified entry price, it seems to me that this number is probably calculated using a weighted sum of the resistance prices and weights (1,2 ... or 8) for the first resistance cluster as a whole or in other words penetrating WR1(2) and MPP(3) is more likely than SR1(6) and YR1(8) and therefore the ideal entry point must be closer to the weakest part of the cluster.
Whether this is true or not, the exercise has been fruitful for me as this adds another tool in my trading kit. Thank you Billy (and Pascal for the Stop part I presume) for bringing such a powerful tool to this community.
Pierre, thank you for the feedback.
In fact, the cluster parameters have been optimized for IWM and the daily buy and short entry prices are always providing a reward-risk ratio of 3:1 if the market trades sideways in the very short term (1 or 2 days) between the extreme limits of the first support and resistance clusters. Before the robot, I took my best market direction guess for choosing to go long or short at the buy/short entry prices. The added value from the robot is that it forces you to stay in synch with the 20 DMF and the highest probabilities beyond the initial 3:1 reward-risk ratio entry edge.
Billy