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Thread: Tutorial Intro: Path Of Least Resistance

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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pierre Brodeur View Post
    ... because the weight of the support cluster is now greater than the weight of the resistance cluster!

    Correct or Incorrect?
    Pierre, you are correct. But clusters strengths are only valid for one day at a time. The real major resistance remains Yearly R1 (85.68) and Semester R1 (85.46) and the most likely area for a new top. Hence, an entry around 85.10 is not so risky as it seems at first sight.
    Billy

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Location
    Montreal Quebec Canada
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy View Post
    Hence, an entry around 85.10 is not so risky as it seems at first sight.
    You actually got my attention with this comment and for a good 10 minutes I have been staring at the chart you provided trying to coldly (froidement) evaluate the risk of that particular trade visually. It allowed me to appreciate the beauty of the cluster approach and make the hypothesis that the weights that you cleverly devised are really probabilities that the individual resistances will not be penetrated within a trader's investment horizon which I presume is relatively short.

    When one focusses on the specified entry price, it seems to me that this number is probably calculated using a weighted sum of the resistance prices and weights (1,2 ... or 8) for the first resistance cluster as a whole or in other words penetrating WR1(2) and MPP(3) is more likely than SR1(6) and YR1(8) and therefore the ideal entry point must be closer to the weakest part of the cluster.

    Whether this is true or not, the exercise has been fruitful for me as this adds another tool in my trading kit. Thank you Billy (and Pascal for the Stop part I presume) for bringing such a powerful tool to this community.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Location
    Brussels, Belgium
    Posts
    1,999
    Quote Originally Posted by Pierre Brodeur View Post
    You actually got my attention with this comment and for a good 10 minutes I have been staring at the chart you provided trying to coldly (froidement) evaluate the risk of that particular trade visually. It allowed me to appreciate the beauty of the cluster approach and make the hypothesis that the weights that you cleverly devised are really probabilities that the individual resistances will not be penetrated within a trader's investment horizon which I presume is relatively short.

    When one focusses on the specified entry price, it seems to me that this number is probably calculated using a weighted sum of the resistance prices and weights (1,2 ... or 8) for the first resistance cluster as a whole or in other words penetrating WR1(2) and MPP(3) is more likely than SR1(6) and YR1(8) and therefore the ideal entry point must be closer to the weakest part of the cluster.

    Whether this is true or not, the exercise has been fruitful for me as this adds another tool in my trading kit. Thank you Billy (and Pascal for the Stop part I presume) for bringing such a powerful tool to this community.
    Pierre, thank you for the feedback.
    In fact, the cluster parameters have been optimized for IWM and the daily buy and short entry prices are always providing a reward-risk ratio of 3:1 if the market trades sideways in the very short term (1 or 2 days) between the extreme limits of the first support and resistance clusters. Before the robot, I took my best market direction guess for choosing to go long or short at the buy/short entry prices. The added value from the robot is that it forces you to stay in synch with the 20 DMF and the highest probabilities beyond the initial 3:1 reward-risk ratio entry edge.
    Billy

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