It seems that whenever I go away things get interesting. In a continuation of the rally of the last four days the major averages opened higher and mostly held the gains the remainder of the session. All the major averages finished near their intraday trading highs. The Nasd averages were a little stronger with the COMPQ and the NDX gaining 1.27% and 1.20% respectively. The SPX was higher by 1.06%. Volume was the issue. It was lower across the board. It fell 4.01% on the New York and 5.47% on the Nasd. Leading stocks were higher as well with the leaders index gaining .97% on the day. The index closed near the top of its trading range on lower and below average volume. The market was showing real weakness until last Wednesday and it looked like the major averages would test their June lows. Then on Wednesday the major averages started to rally. There was talk that the inflation reports starting tomorrow would come in less than expected. That produced solid buying that lasted through today. The major averages broke above their respective 50dma resistance levels on Friday and built on that today. Some of the indicators I follow are getting more positive. There was a Eureka signal on Friday and the A’s minus E’s and the Summation Index are about to turn up. If recent positive action continues the target for the major averages would now be their 200dma’s or their highs of the recent rally attempt. It is hope that inflation numbers tomorrow and Wednesday will show a slowing of the increase in inflation that has caused the up move. A good portion of upside from good numbers may already be discounted in the price action of the last four days, so a really good number may be needed to drive prices further higher. There are some positive signs out there now, but the inflation reports of the next two days will determine if the current rally attempt will continue. Jerry
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