Market Exposure Model Upate?

Hi Mike,

The last week has given me some experience in trying to apply the 3 stalling rules your provided recently, S11 Downside Reversal Days, and whether to take the Exposure Count negative. I would be great to get your update. Here is what I tentatively have come up with.

1. I did not think there were any stall days last week. Dec 13 & 14 were outright DD's on $COMPQ, Th, Dec 15 was not Stalling-1 b/c intraday high was below prior 2 days; Fri, Dec 16 was not a Stalling-1 for the same reason and price was actually up more than 0.2%. Stalling-2 and -3 were not in play b/c the closes on Dec 15 & 16 were in the lower half of the day's range (I gather we don't use ATR to measure, but the day's price range which can be different than ATR due to opening gaps).

2. Fri, Dec 16 was not a S11 on $COMPQ, right? ATR for the day was greater than 0.75%, volume was above 50d average, close was below 25% of day's range (do not use ATR, right?), w/n 13 weeks of a new intraday high (not sure what to take as the "new intraday high"? but the close was not down on the day, so no S11. Is the new intraday high based on 52 week highs? or, all-time high? or, Marketsmith/WONDA significant high/low measure?

3. on Tu, Dec 13, was S3 Full Distribution - 1 triggered? I think you wrote a few weeks ago "Only distribution days after the FTD are counted," but it seems like we mostly (subject to a few exceptions which are in the rules), keep tracking DD's and Exposure Count as one would during a post-FTD period. If S3 was triggered on Dec 13 (or if there was another DD) would that signal take the Exposure Count to -1, or is 0 the lowest it can go? This would matter if we had subsequent buy signals b/c they would have to "unwind" a negative Exposure Count before EC could get positive, depending on how we apply this. How does this apply to using the model for shorting signals?

4. Also, on Wed, Dec 14 there was a DD on $COMPQ, but it was offset by the Nov 9th DD falling out of the 25d window - so, no net impact, right?

I think its highly probably I have made some error of interpretation or implementation, so any guidance from you would be much appreciated.

Thanks,

Shawn

[QUOTE=shawn_molodow;19402]Hi Mike,

The last week has given me some experience in trying to apply the 3 stalling rules your provided recently, S11 Downside Reversal Days, and whether to take the Exposure Count negative. I would be great to get your update. Here is what I tentatively have come up with.

1. I did not think there were any stall days last week. Dec 13 & 14 were outright DD's on $COMPQ, Th, Dec 15 was not Stalling-1 b/c intraday high was below prior 2 days; Fri, Dec 16 was not a Stalling-1 for the same reason and price was actually up more than 0.2%. Stalling-2 and -3 were not in play b/c the closes on Dec 15 & 16 were in the lower half of the day's range (I gather we don't use ATR to measure, but the day's price range which can be different than ATR due to opening gaps).

2. Fri, Dec 16 was not a S11 on $COMPQ, right? ATR for the day was greater than 0.75%, volume was above 50d average, close was below 25% of day's range (do not use ATR, right?), w/n 13 weeks of a new intraday high (not sure what to take as the "new intraday high"? but the close was not down on the day, so no S11. Is the new intraday high based on 52 week highs? or, all-time high? or, Marketsmith/WONDA significant high/low measure?

3. on Tu, Dec 13, was S3 Full Distribution - 1 triggered? I think you wrote a few weeks ago "Only distribution days after the FTD are counted," but it seems like we mostly (subject to a few exceptions which are in the rules), keep tracking DD's and Exposure Count as one would during a post-FTD period. If S3 was triggered on Dec 13 (or if there was another DD) would that signal take the Exposure Count to -1, or is 0 the lowest it can go? This would matter if we had subsequent buy signals b/c they would have to "unwind" a negative Exposure Count before EC could get positive, depending on how we apply this. How does this apply to using the model for shorting signals?

4. Also, on Wed, Dec 14 there was a DD on $COMPQ, but it was offset by the Nov 9th DD falling out of the 25d window - so, no net impact, right?

I think its highly probably I have made some error of interpretation or implementation, so any guidance from you would be much appreciated.

Thanks,

Shawn[/QUOTE]

Good work Shawn, I have a distribution day falling off on 12/15 which means that we got an S4 on 12/13 distribution day. The rule is that a distribution day falls off when 25 days have passed after a distribution day. If you count the day of distribution day as day zero then it works out that a count of 25 is the day it comes off. So the distribution day on 11/09/11 came off on 12/15. Actually the IBD chart has it your way. I just sent in an email to them to clarify counting.

There has been no stalling days since 8/31/11. Something I learned since first talking about stall day definitions is that I was applying them wrong. Simple stalling (first definition) needs no further discussion. However Stall Rare 1 and 2 need to meet all of the simple stall rules with exception of the close percent of range and then apply the rest of Rare 1 or Rare 2 definitions in addition.

I have attached the Thursday close chart from IBD. I don't have their Friday chart yet. There were no signals yesterday.


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