GDX Robot v TEF Volume Flow for PM ETF's/Stocks/Futures

Pascal,

This is probably a very naive comment but I am a little perplexed with the different signals seen from the GDX Robot against the TEF volume flows into the Precious Metals ETF's/Stocks/Futures.

The money seems to be flowing out of the PM sector but the GDX Robot is on a Strong Buy.

What is the Robot seeing that is not obvious from the action of the other instruments ? Is the TEF Volume outflow a good sign for future returns from your testing ?

Thanks in advance for answering a possibly stupid question :O(

Trev

[QUOTE=manucastle;17183]Pascal,

This is probably a very naive comment but I am a little perplexed with the different signals seen from the GDX Robot against the TEF volume flows into the Precious Metals ETF's/Stocks/Futures.

The money seems to be flowing out of the PM sector but the GDX Robot is on a Strong Buy.

What is the Robot seeing that is not obvious from the action of the other instruments ? Is the TEF Volume outflow a good sign for future returns from your testing ?

Thanks in advance for answering a possibly stupid question :O(

Trev[/QUOTE]

From the past statistics, the robot has seen that it pays to fade the big moves either in price or in TEV extension.
It simply says that when money starts moving out, you'd better pay attention, especially if the MF falls into short zone (we are hanging just above this zone,) but you need to buy GDX when there has been a strong price down move especially accompanied by very heavy selling. We have had moderate selling, but a big price down move.

Now, it is clearly the time to be prudent. It is not the time to be bold. I would be bold if the 20DMF was close to issuing a buy signal.


Pascal

[QUOTE=Pascal;17191]From the past statistics, the robot has seen that it pays to fade the big moves either in price or in TEV extension.
It simply says that when money starts moving out, you'd better pay attention, especially if the MF falls into short zone (we are hanging just above this zone,) but you need to buy GDX when there has been a strong price down move especially accompanied by very heavy selling. We have had moderate selling, but a big price down move.

Now, it is clearly the time to be prudent. It is not the time to be bold. I would be bold if the 20DMF was close to issuing a buy signal.


Pascal[/QUOTE]

Thanks very much Pascal. It helps to understand the nuances of the system.

Trev

I note with interest the complete LEV/TEV reversal in GDX at the end of the day:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]10673[/ATTACH]

Pay particular attention to the spike in LEV (blue trace, lower pane) in the last minutes of the day.

I also note with interest that NUGT, the +2x leveraged ETF on the GDX, did NOT show the same pattern:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]10674[/ATTACH]

This stresses the importance of using the underlying (GDX) to base decisions and then the leveraged instrument (+NUGT, -2DUST) to play your hand ...

We *may* be getting close to seeing the fruits of our labors here ... time will tell.

Regards,

pgd