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Distribution Day Warning
Big reversal day with a neutral RT 20 DMF so far.
NYSE volume is running 15%and Nasdaq volume 12% higher than yesterday .
HFT selling as Cumulative TICK is now struggling below its 3 reference moving averages (195 , 390 and 600 minutes).
Flash crash at the DAX losing 5% in 20 minutes on rumors of Germany debt downgrade quickly denied by all rating agencies. Yet the denial was not bought.
Irene troubles on the East Coast.
Bernanke speech tomorrow...
From an IBD study, if we get a distribution day within 3 days after a follow thru day, the probability that the uptrend fails is approximately 80%.
A distribution day would be confirmed by a close lower of more than -0.2% on major indices with volume higher than yesterday.
Billy
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[QUOTE=Billy;16090]Big reversal day with a neutral RT 20 DMF so far.
NYSE volume is running 15%and Nasdaq volume 12% higher than yesterday .
HFT selling as Cumulative TICK is now struggling below its 3 reference moving averages (195 , 390 and 600 minutes).
Flash crash at the DAX losing 5% in 20 minutes on rumors of Germany debt downgrade quickly denied by all rating agencies. Yet the denial was not bought.
Irene troubles on the East Coast.
Bernanke speech tomorrow...
From an IBD study, if we get a distribution day within 3 days after a follow thru day, the probability that the uptrend fails is approximately 80%.
A distribution day would be confirmed by a close lower of more than -0.2% on major indices with volume higher than yesterday.
Billy[/QUOTE]
Same HFT selling on $TIKUSC and $TIKRL also.
Trev
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Billy, (or anyone)
"A distribution day would be confirmed by a close lower of more than -0.2% on major indices with volume higher than yesterday."
Is that -.2% or -2%? Just wondering if there should be a decimal there.
Thanks,
Dave
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Between waiting for the Stage 3 signal, a possible distribution day today, Bernacke tomorrow and the Robot stop that is still far from the purchase price, do you have any thoughts on position size to carry overnight?
Best regards,
Robert
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[QUOTE=davidallison@shaw.ca;16096]Billy, (or anyone)
"A distribution day would be confirmed by a close lower of more than -0.2% on major indices with volume higher than yesterday."
Is that -.2% or -2%? Just wondering if there should be a decimal there.
Thanks,
Dave[/QUOTE]
Dave, that's -0.2% with the decimal.
Billy
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[QUOTE=brrim;16099]Between waiting for the Stage 3 signal, a possible distribution day today, Bernacke tomorrow and the Robot stop that is still far from the purchase price, do you have any thoughts on position size to carry overnight?
Best regards,
Robert[/QUOTE]
Robert,
For those who have a plan - and the robot is a plan - there is nothing special to do other than sticking to the plan.
For discretionary traders, the day is far from over. Heavy buying of intraday pullbacks tends to happen in the last 90 minutes recently. I was planning to buy an intraday pullback to daily S1 on the indices for overnight holding, but the ominous reversal of the cumulative TICK made me stay in cash with my discretionary trading account. The 20 DMF signal evolution and robot settings are strong enough to avoid shorting overnight, that's for sure too.
Billy
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