Sector Selections 7/5/2011
The force of the rally did not change the overall relationship of the sectors. Although XLK (technology) edged out XLU (utilities) in money flow, the edge was very slight. Bullish sectors had a slight money flow edge for a few days at the beginning of last week, but gave way to the bearish sectors by the end.
The model remains in a bear configuration.
Depending on the IWM Robot, new positions would be in:
XLK (long), or
XLE (short)
As I noted last week, I considered changing my premise so that I could shift long sectors within a Robot call, but that turns out to be very unlikely to ever pull off.
So, for now, while the Robot remains long, I'm in XLU, which was the initial long sector selection.
Those who are following my experiment can note that XLU is dragging behind IWM by a good margin (even counting for the 1% dividend payout XLU gave me last week).
That will change what I post here
Per the subscription agreement, I won't be posting my own sector selection trades in real time on this thread.
However, I'll continue to post my long and short sector selections for those using 20DMF or another source as a timer.
I'll also post in real time in Billy's Multi-Pivots forum for Robot subscribers.
Also, Billy has been generous enough to help my experiment with pivots specific to my sector selections, so my test will be more apples to apples going forward.
I have another model I call the "Mousetrap" that is a hybrid technical and fundamental selection process. That model is broad market timing agnostic, and only times relative technicals between industries and fundamentals between stocks. That model is also a real time test. The technicals have been backtested, and the fundamentals have been backtested, but it was impossible to backtest them together, so that test is live (and again I'm the ginea pig with my own money).
To catch up to speed, the Mousetrap will eventually have 10 stocks it rotates through, and is currently up to 4:
On 5/31 I bought BKI at 25.11
On 6/22 I bought CFI at 8.29
On 6/27 I bought SE at 26.36
On 7/5 I bought AWR at 35.02
Future posts here will be labelled "Mousetrap" with the long stocks I've selected (eventually 10) and the long and short sector selections.
Tim
