10-02-12 Open

The market looks a little more dangerous to me. The distribution count on the S&P500 and NYSE Composite is now 5 after yesterday's stall event. Traditionally this is a level that one should consider raising some cash in your potfolio. There have been 4 distribution/stall events on the NYSE in the last five days. This is a lot. The NASDAQ does not look so bad but only for technical reasons two recent trading days narrowly missed being labeled stall days. Given that the computer stall definition tries to depict what essentially has been a visual exercise, the distinction may not be important. The market exposure model concentrates on the NASDAQ but that doesn't mean we should close our eyes to what is going on elsewhere.

Confusing the picture, IBD shifted to NYSE Consolidated volume on May 24th of this year instead of the narrower exchange volume. This leads to confusion at times to those looking at different feeds. From a CANSLIM portfolio standpoint most practicioners are reporting stalled portfolio action. Every one of my stocks is up between 5 and 10% and have been trading between these goal posts for some time. In general the action of your own portfolios are often an early warning sign. AAPL may be bouncing this morning off the 10-week moving average. Where AAPL goes will likey show us the way...