GDX Robot entry question

Billy - Maybe I am missing something, but why would todays GDX robot entry be higher than the previous close? Are the odds that good for an upward move to give up the spread? I am only asking to learn as I own GDX from the original signal.

Also, I keep getting an error trying to access the both robots notes. If I hit refresh 3-4 times, I seem to get through. Is this a setting error on my end or is the site still getting the kinks out?

Finally, the site is fantastic. A huge thanks/congrats to all EV masterminds!

Today's GDX robot entry is higher than the previous close because GDX closed above Yearly Pivot (55.19), the strongest of all Supports or Resistances. YPP is now acting as support and allows for better reward risk entry on strength. Of course a close below YPP (55.19) would reverse back the R/R ratio.

Pascal and I have no problems accessing the pages; it may be a setting problem on your side and you may ask for support from Thanassis:
[email]thstath@nodalpoint.com[/email]

Billy - Thanks for the explaination!

Lot’s of volatility with GDX on Friday! I purchased some June 55 calls at daily S1 near the open, only to see that level fail where it tested S2. The volume on the calls was highest since several months, at the S1, S2 level. That’s a good sign! It makes one wonder who is pushing this market around to their own advantage.
Dave

I have a few issues re GDX Robot.

As of 20 May 2011 the GDX Robot advocates for a RELATIVE STRONG BUY with LT strong positive edge (2.4%) but with a ST very weak positive edge (0.93%) leading to a statistical 3D LOSS and only 45.8% of cases positive after three days. In a previous forum note Billy states that the best bias should be +3% for buy trades and 3% for sell trades.

Q1: Is it possible to have an overview of a full spectrum of negative/positive edges both for LT and ST and an explanation/definition of different levels of edges, and what they may indicate for our trading? If it is explained in the Trading GDX report (pdf) from 8 May 2011 I am not able to read it correctly.

I noticed that Friday (20 May) there was a massive influx of Large Players intraday which turn around and ended at almost same MF level as for the day’s start. The price went up concurrently intraday by almost 1.5% - yet ended in only +0.25%.

Q2: What could be an explanation for such a relative dramatic in-and-out move?

Best
Sorensen

[QUOTE=sesorensen ;12534]I have a few issues re GDX Robot.

As of 20 May 2011 the GDX Robot advocates for a RELATIVE STRONG BUY with LT strong positive edge (2.4%) but with a ST very weak positive edge (0.93%) leading to a statistical 3D LOSS and only 45.8% of cases positive after three days. In a previous forum note Billy states that the best bias should be +3% for buy trades and 3% for sell trades.

Q1: Is it possible to have an overview of a full spectrum of negative/positive edges both for LT and ST and an explanation/definition of different levels of edges, and what they may indicate for our trading? If it is explained in the Trading GDX report (pdf) from 8 May 2011 I am not able to read it correctly.

I noticed that Friday (20 May) there was a massive influx of Large Players intraday which turn around and ended at almost same MF level as for the day’s start. The price went up concurrently intraday by almost 1.5% - yet ended in only +0.25%.

Q2: What could be an explanation for such a relative dramatic in-and-out move?

Best
Sorensen[/QUOTE]

Sorensen,
The answer to your first question is in the GDX Report on pages 21 and 22. [url]http://www.effectivevolume.eu/content/Reports/Trading_GDX.pdf[/url]
In the past 44 months, the Robot found 42 strong buy/short signals, (over the threshold of 3% bias)
with an average return of about 6% per trade that on average lasted 9 trading days. These are times of great low-risk opportunities. The current 10D bias of 2.4% is "relatively" strong for the 10D horizon, but the 3D weak bias (0.93%) tells you not to expect miracles in the very short term. On a side note, GDX is holding just above its yearly pivot - or equilibrium- price, but is pressured down by the 200-day moving average, so I would not be surprised if we see some more consolidation before a retest and potential victory over the 200 dma.

For your second question, Pascal is much better qualified than me. But I have learned long ago never to draw any conclusion from strange behaviors on opex days.

Billy

[QUOTE=sesorensen ;12534]I have a few issues re GDX Robot.

As of 20 May 2011 the GDX Robot advocates for a RELATIVE STRONG BUY with LT strong positive edge (2.4%) but with a ST very weak positive edge (0.93%) leading to a statistical 3D LOSS and only 45.8% of cases positive after three days. In a previous forum note Billy states that the best bias should be +3% for buy trades and 3% for sell trades.

Q1: Is it possible to have an overview of a full spectrum of negative/positive edges both for LT and ST and an explanation/definition of different levels of edges, and what they may indicate for our trading? If it is explained in the Trading GDX report (pdf) from 8 May 2011 I am not able to read it correctly.

I noticed that Friday (20 May) there was a massive influx of Large Players intraday which turn around and ended at almost same MF level as for the day’s start. The price went up concurrently intraday by almost 1.5% - yet ended in only +0.25%.

Q2: What could be an explanation for such a relative dramatic in-and-out move?

Best
Sorensen[/QUOTE]

Thanks for this question. I saw that Billy already responded.

I inserted a new table that shows how the LT/ST combination works for GDX.

I will do the same for the IWM Robot.


Pascal