2-14-2018 Comments

We are in day-4 of a possible advance off of the recent lows. This is the first day that we can be pretty sure about real buying interest vs. short covering. The CANSLIM method looks for a Follow-Through Day (FTD) on day four or later. An FTD occurs when a major index closes up significantly on volume higher than the day before. We are up 1.87% at this writing on volume that is running more than 20% greater than at this point yesterday. The price increase threshold depends a bit on index volatility over the last 200 days. This method suggests that any increase more than 0.85% should qualify. Ergo, we are probably going to close today with an FTD.

Base setups are a bit ragged because of the short and deep recent decline. I typically buy an ETF in these circumstances. I purchased QLD today. I have to admit that I pretty much thought that the market rally was over. We shall see, in the meantime, I follow my buy and sell rules.