1-16-2016 Before the Open

Watch lists are updated. The market is correcting in an oversold state; as such, it is difficult to generate a profitable scenario for mid-long-term investors. Gold appears to have bounced, it might be possible to buy pullbacks.

One of the market factors I watch is NASDAQ average true range, see chart. In a [U]rising [/U]market, when I see ATR making higher lows and higher highs, it can portend a move to a bear market. When ATR goes into an uptrend coincident with a market pullback it suggests just that, a pullback that will be met by higher market highs when the pullback completes. We have the former condition with a rising ATR since late 2014. I hesitate to place much credence in this because most of my market topping methods have broken down in the Fed-driven frenzy. However, NASDAQ ATR looks similar to the TED spread which is doing the same thing. Perhaps we are returning to a market where traditional methods work again. So, don't fall in love with the upside and look for short-side opportunities if and when the market rallies.

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[QUOTE=Mike;30758]Watch lists are updated. The market is correcting in an oversold state; as such, it is difficult to generate a profitable scenario for mid-long-term investors. Gold appears to have bounced, it might be possible to buy pullbacks.

One of the market factors I watch is NASDAQ average true range, see chart. In a [U]rising [/U]market, when I see ATR making higher lows and higher highs, it can portend a move to a bear market. When ATR goes into an uptrend coincident with a market pullback it suggests just that, a pullback that will be met by higher market highs when the pullback completes. We have the former condition with a rising ATR since late 2014. I hesitate to place much credence in this because most of my market topping methods have broken down in the Fed-driven frenzy. However, NASDAQ ATR looks similar to the TED spread which is doing the same thing. Perhaps we are returning to a market where traditional methods work again. So, don't fall in love with the upside and look for short-side opportunities if and when the market rallies.

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Thanks, Mike. Helpful -