Grand Solar Minimum

This is my second post today. I didn't want to confuse the issue in this post with the current market and gold. This post is really long-term thinking. I am so far out the mainstream of the IPCC (global warming panel) that I hope that someone in this forum can point out the error in my thoughts. The market will be greatly affected if my thinking is correct.

I am an amateur radio operator. As such, I am sensitive to solar sunspot cycles. Periods of large sunspot activity supports worldwide communication via ionospheric radio wave reflections. I have been noticing the dearth of sunspots. In the past, extended low sunspot activity has strongly affected earth weather in periods called mini-ice ages. The effects were so large that crops failed, political regimes failed and people starved. I don't doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses are having an influence on weather. However, if we are entering a 70-year or so period of low sunspot activity there will be a large counter influence. I don't know which effect is stronger. The sun output decreases slightly during solar minimums with minimal direct effect, however, there is another mechanism involving the protective effect the sun has on shielding the earth from cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are particularly effective at producing clouds. The increased cloud cover reflects more solar energy back into space, cooling the planet.

This chart shows a long history of sunspot activity.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43831[/ATTACH]

The left side red data, before 1749 discovery of sunspots is reconstructed from Carbon 14 and Beryllium 10 ice core data. The chart shows the well known 11-year periodicity of sunspots. In actuality, the period is 22 years. Every 11 years the magnetic field of the sun flips from north to south, taking 22 years to complete. Every once in a great while the solar activity ceases or greatly reduces. Shown in this chart are the Dalton and Maunder minimums. These periods were called mini ice ages in history. Think about the time Napoleon was frozen in Moscow during the Dalton period. During a mini-ice age, Iceland and Greenland froze in, the Thames river iced up, the Baltic Sea froze over, Glaciers advanced, Hawaii and Mexico had years without rain, India and Ireland had a famine, the Mississippi River flooded many times (when the ice broke up).

In this next chart, we see two sets of sunspot data overlain, the blue data is associated with the Dalton-Minimum period, the red-charted data is the last three solar cycles. The signatures are very similar to each other showing decreased solar activity in each subsequent cycle leading possibly to a Grand Solar Minimum.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43832[/ATTACH]

In support of the thesis, balloon stratospheric radiation measurements have shown a steady increase in cosmic radiation since 2014. The bomb cyclone we had last year in New England is typical of the storms seen around 1809, in the Dalton period.

If I haven't fallen off my game, something is happening that hasn't entered the common discourse. Going back even further in time, China has had a new dynasty after every Grand Solar Minimum. One researcher at the University of California has suggested that China is one solar minimum away from another regime and we are possibly right on the cusp of entering it.

Hi Mike
This was very interesting and thank you for it. If you are familiar with Martin Armstrong he has talked about something like this "solar" story.




[QUOTE=Mike;32737]This is my second post today. I didn't want to confuse the issue in this post with the current market and gold. This post is really long-term thinking. I am so far out the mainstream of the IPCC (global warming panel) that I hope that someone in this forum can point out the error in my thoughts. The market will be greatly affected if my thinking is correct.

I am an amateur radio operator. As such, I am sensitive to solar sunspot cycles. Periods of large sunspot activity supports worldwide communication via ionospheric radio wave reflections. I have been noticing the dearth of sunspots. In the past, extended low sunspot activity has strongly affected earth weather in periods called mini-ice ages. The effects were so large that crops failed, political regimes failed and people starved. I don't doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses are having an influence on weather. However, if we are entering a 70-year or so period of low sunspot activity there will be a large counter influence. I don't know which effect is stronger. The sun output decreases slightly during solar minimums with minimal direct effect, however, there is another mechanism involving the protective effect the sun has on shielding the earth from cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are particularly effective at producing clouds. The increased cloud cover reflects more solar energy back into space, cooling the planet.

This chart shows a long history of sunspot activity.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43831[/ATTACH]

The left side red data, before 1749 discovery of sunspots is reconstructed from Carbon 14 and Beryllium 10 ice core data. The chart shows the well known 11-year periodicity of sunspots. In actuality, the period is 22 years. Every 11 years the magnetic field of the sun flips from north to south, taking 22 years to complete. Every once in a great while the solar activity ceases or greatly reduces. Shown in this chart are the Dalton and Maunder minimums. These periods were called mini ice ages in history. Think about the time Napoleon was frozen in Moscow during the Dalton period. During a mini-ice age, Iceland and Greenland froze in, the Thames river iced up, the Baltic Sea froze over, Glaciers advanced, Hawaii and Mexico had years without rain, India and Ireland had a famine, the Mississippi River flooded many times (when the ice broke up).

In this next chart, we see two sets of sunspot data overlain, the blue data is associated with the Dalton-Minimum period, the red-charted data is the last three solar cycles. The signatures are very similar to each other showing decreased solar activity in each subsequent cycle leading possibly to a Grand Solar Minimum.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43832[/ATTACH]

In support of the thesis, balloon stratospheric radiation measurements have shown a steady increase in cosmic radiation since 2014. The bomb cyclone we had last year in New England is typical of the storms seen around 1809, in the Dalton period.

If I haven't fallen off my game, something is happening that hasn't entered the common discourse. Going back even further in time, China has had a new dynasty after every Grand Solar Minimum. One researcher at the University of California has suggested that China is one solar minimum away from another regime and we are possibly right on the cusp of entering it.[/QUOTE]

Good write-up Mike. It'll be interesting to see how evidence mounts (or doesn't) to support this over the next few years. If that's long enough to formulate a trend. I'm curious how this will impact the "climate warming" story. Would we begin to see reversal evidence such as the rate of thawing of the polar ice packs, changes in sea level, and precipitation patterns. Most importantly, how quickly we may see change and the rate of change.

[QUOTE=GaryT;32749]Good write-up Mike. It'll be interesting to see how evidence mounts (or doesn't) to support this over the next few years. If that's long enough to formulate a trend. I'm curious how this will impact the "climate warming" story. Would we begin to see reversal evidence such as the rate of thawing of the polar ice packs, changes in sea level, and precipitation patterns. Most importantly, how quickly we may see change and the rate of change.[/QUOTE]

I had a quick smile when you asked: How will this impact the "climate warming" story. All weather phenomenon will support the climate warming story whether it does or doesn't. This is politics. It is very difficult to get the right story when money, power, and control are involved. We only get worst case scenarios.

I believe that filling the planet with excess CO2 will have negative consequences. I also think that we are slipping into a grand solar minimum. Grand solar minimums are cyclical phenomena that last maybe 50-70 years. When the cycle is over, the chickens will come home to roost.

[QUOTE=Mike;32751]I had a quick smile when you asked: How will this impact the "climate warming" story. All weather phenomenon will support the climate warming story whether it does or doesn't. This is politics. It is very difficult to get the right story when money, power, and control are involved. We only get worst case scenarios.

I believe that filling the planet with excess CO2 will have negative consequences. I also think that we are slipping into a grand solar minimum. Grand solar minimums are cyclical phenomena that last maybe 50-70 years. When the cycle is over, the chickens will come home to roost.[/QUOTE]

Mike, have you done any work on how solar minimums/maximums affect human behavior, particularly in regards to the stock market?