Macro timing with the 30 year

Doug Dillon (aka MontyHigh) has a great post worth reading here:

[URL="http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/2011/09/trading-the-biiwii-mvp-chart.html"]http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/2011/09/trading-the-biiwii-mvp-chart.html[/URL]

The long bond yield is a chart I've been closely following as well. To answer the final question, how will we know when the bottom in the 30 year yield is in, I'm looking for a bullish candlestick formation on the weekly, which has worked well in the past.

Note, though, that the bottom in yields can precede a bottom in equities by several months, as was the case with the 2008 panic. What might be different this time is the deflationary forces are coming primarily from Europe, with US money supply growth already running high. Once Europe is "solved" (or can kicked), we're going to be in for a very big risk run up. It increasingly looks like the money printers will take over in November headed by Draghi, so we might expect a resolution to the EFSF and expectations being set up in October. In the meantime, we cannot rule out another panic downward.