Neutral Day For GDX Money Flow - March 22,2012

The Precious Metals Sector Money Flow finished the day unchanged at -0.50% and closed 0.30% away from the average MF + porosity (+0.13%) threshold needed to trigger a long signal for the GDX robot. Even a stable Money Flow from now on could trigger the long signal soon because the average MF is declining by -0.10% a day.

With a neutral MF and yesterday’s Monthly S2 (50.09) key support unable to hold within a strong downtrend, I still view Monthly S3 (47.50) as the most logical final capitulation target for the month of March. Pre-market is pointing to a new gap down and it might revisit Tuesday’s lows around Weekly S1 (48.66). The two support clusters have a total strength of 9 equal to the first resistance cluster alone and many professional floor algorithms will take this into account in case of liquidity problems or a lack of bids from large players. But the RT long bias stays active and doesn’t show signs of a new selloff at this stage.

I am waiting in cash for the next episode. I have no intention to short and I am ready to buy back my long position on a confirmed buy signal.
Billy

[ATTACH=CONFIG]13515[/ATTACH]
[ATTACH=CONFIG]13516[/ATTACH]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

[QUOTE=DJones;21410]Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks[/QUOTE]

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

[QUOTE=Billy;21411]Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy[/QUOTE]

And if a buy signal is triggered at the average + porosity, a short signal would be triggered if MF falls back below the average - porosity or currently -0.42-0.13= -0.55%.
Billy

I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

[QUOTE=pdp-brugge;21414]Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP[/QUOTE]

The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy

Randgold (GOLD) is a large component of GDX and is down almost 12% on concerns after the Mali coup.
Without this surprise news, GDX might have triggered the buy signal already. But let's respect the model rules!
Billy

[QUOTE=Billy;21416]The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy[/QUOTE]

The RT system is now seting its messages to monitor the EOD status (Short).
Since we crossed above the average and are now slightly below, I will revert the system to monitoring the RT status, which was in a buy mode.


Pascal

[QUOTE=Pascal;21418]The RT system is now setting its messages to monitor the EOD status (Short).
Since we crossed above the average and are now slightly below, I will revert the system to monitoring the RT status, which was in a buy mode.


Pascal[/QUOTE]

OK. The RT shorting message is wrong. I'll revert the messages to monitoring the EOD signal and will review the error on the RT Message.


Pascal

[QUOTE=davidallison@shaw.ca;21413]I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately, I agree. Enthusiasm tempered.

I'm still looking at price decline in the GDX from 50.11 with MF at -0.86% to 48.74 with MF at -0.44%. Money has come in, and fairly steadily, and the price has had a couple of big gaps down. For me, a good test of the fundamental approach.

[QUOTE=Pascal;21419]OK. The RT shorting message is wrong. I'll revert the messages to monitoring the EOD signal and will review the error on the RT Message.


Pascal[/QUOTE]

No worries. Billy's great to post here so we know what the RT is doing. It's easy to ignore the message on screen.

[QUOTE=DJones;21420]I'm still looking at price decline in the GDX from 50.11 with MF at -0.86% to 48.74 with MF at -0.44%. Money has come in, and fairly steadily, and the price has had a couple of big gaps down. For me, a good test of the fundamental approach.[/QUOTE]

DJones,
For sure. I've been buying calls on NUGT out to Arpril and May, at the same time had some crash protection with puts on GDX that expire Friday. Sure glad I had the protection. I sold the puts this morning and adding the the NUGT calls. Have to see how the day unfolds.
Dave

If we anticipate that the average MF will be 0.10% lower tomorrow, a buy signal will be at
-0.52 +0.13 = -0.37% and a protective short signal would follow at -0.52 -0.13= -0.65%.
So, if MF stabilizes until the close at or above -0.37% the long signal could be triggered at the open tomorrow, but would need to stay there until the close tomorrow for a long EOD signal.
Billy

Looks like the EOD robot will switch to long pos too (if no surprise comes in the last 5 min.)

[QUOTE=Wei;21427]Looks like the EOD robot will switch to long pos too (if no surprise comes in the last 5 min.)[/QUOTE]

The average + porosity limit (-0.29%) was not touched. Very weak MF in the closing minutes. EOD robot stays short.
Billy

[QUOTE=Billy;21428]The average + porosity limit (-0.29%) was not touched. Very weak MF in the closing minutes. EOD robot stays short.
Billy[/QUOTE]

RT still long, eh?

[QUOTE=DJones;21429]RT still long, eh?[/QUOTE]

Yes. A RT short signal could only happen after Mf has hit average + porosity if it falls below average MF MINUS porosity. We are in whipsaw territory again and porosity range is here to confirm the signals.
Billy