[ATTACH]10986[/ATTACH]
The attached continues the CANSLIM education series.
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[ATTACH]10986[/ATTACH]
The attached continues the CANSLIM education series.
Mike,
Thank you so much for sharing your work and expertise.
This series goes far beyond what we could ever have hoped for.
And furthermore, you are available here for answering all questions!
Hats off with immense respect!
Billy
Thanks, Mike.
Have a couple questions for you: was yesterday a distribution day under the CANSLIM methodology and therefore negated the (barely) FTD we had last week?
Also, has the Coppock Curve indicator given a buy signal?
Adam, the weekly Coppock did give a signal last week. Jerry
Thank you so much Mike. It is well appreciated.
Martin
Thanks, Jerry.
My comment about the action on Monday negating the FTD we received last week: "negated" was too strong a word. What I am interested in is advice on how to think about a day like Monday, i.e., a large percentage drop in the indices that in hindsight appears to be an effort to shake out weak longs, under CANSLIM methodology.
[QUOTE=adam ali;17759]Thanks, Mike.
Have a couple questions for you: was yesterday a distribution day under the CANSLIM methodology and therefore negated the (barely) FTD we had last week?
Also, has the Coppock Curve indicator given a buy signal?[/QUOTE]
Adam, yes 10/17/11 was a distribution day. It does not negate the FTD. A distribution day that occurs within the first three days of a FTD usually inicates a rally failure. Yesterday however would qualify as a FTD. So if a rally is going to succeed with early distribution, this is how it would happen. Most bear markets test the 200-day on the S&P500, which is 4% above. I would guess that we will do that again and then the market will tell us which road it is on.
Thanks, Mike.
Are you suprised that Gil and Dr. K are still on the sidelines here? Is there a dichotomy in the CANSLIM community right now as to the market's direction and how to invest?
[QUOTE=adam ali;17777]Thanks, Mike.
Are you suprised that Gil and Dr. K are still on the sidelines here? Is there a dichotomy in the CANSLIM community right now as to the market's direction and how to invest?[/QUOTE]
Adam, I am not really surprised. I believe Dr. K's market direction model would be on a buy signal today but he seems to have overridden the mechanical signal. IBD doesn't overide their mechanical model at least very often. We are supposed to do our own analysis. Having a follow-through day is part of the story. Having leading stocks breaking out of sound bases and moving up is the rest of the story. That is what is missing in today's market and IBD has said so. So IBD says we are in a confirmed rally (and the market is rallying) but they also say the leadership isn't there. We are supposed to then decide if we wish to enter the market or not on our own. Dr. K has basically said the same thing with an emphasis on the glass being half empty (or mostly empty).
I would suspect that some of the O'Neil money managers are in the market but not very far in. Bill tends to give his money managers hard upper bounds when the market looks like it does today. He may for example say: no more than 20% or 30% portfolio exposure. The follow-through day on 10/12 was controversial at best and it came on the $NYA which today is a lagging index. Yesterday's market action qualifies as a second FTD on much broader in scope and much more unambiguous. The leadership still isn't there so my conclusion is that we are experiencing another junk off the bottom rally. I hold partial positions in SBH and DLTR. I am also short FOSL. Pascal mentioned that FOSL may be a beneficiary of European bailouts, so my positon may overcome by events...
Hi Mike,
I've misplaced the first installment and unable to find it on the site. Is it still up?
Thanks for the informative work.
Buzz
Mike, forget my request; I found it. bz
Hi Mike,
Great courses, thank you for sharing the info.
I have a couple of easy questions. I subscribe to eIBD but I have never found the top 100, 85-85 lists or the FTD. I am familiar with the Big Picture the top 200 and the top 50. Can you tell me where are the others are located? Or, is it a product of MarketSmith?
Secondly, what are you referring to with HGSI. The only thing I see around is Human Genome Sciences; I must be missing something basic.
Thanks,
Buzz
[URL="http://www.highgrowthstock.com/"]Here's a link. Hope this helps.[/URL]
[QUOTE=buzzman;17839]Hi Mike,
Great courses, thank you for sharing the info.
I have a couple of easy questions. I subscribe to eIBD but I have never found the top 100, 85-85 lists or the FTD. I am familiar with the Big Picture the top 200 and the top 50. Can you tell me where are the others are located? Or, is it a product of MarketSmith?
Secondly, what are you referring to with HGSI. The only thing I see around is Human Genome Sciences; I must be missing something basic.
Thanks,
Buzz[/QUOTE]
Buzz,
The IBD 100 was changed to the IBD 50 some months ago. It is found in every Monday edition. They will show a mini chart for all 50 of the stocks. The 85-85 list stands for EPS rating > 85 and Relative Strength rating > 85. This list with mini charts appears in every Friday edition of IBD. It is named Weekend Review in the paper. The FTD is short for Follow-Through Day. On October 12 we had a FTD, it was discussed on the front page in the Market Pulse section of the next day's IBD. I use eIBD also and save every edition, I have all editions going back to January 2003...
HGSI refers to High Growth Stock Investor. It is an end of day stock charting and screening program. You can google it, they offer a 45-day free trial. They are coming out with a new version in days, so I might wait a week or so if you want to try it.
Thank you, I see the light. buzz
Mike, thank you. That all makes sense. But, I got the impression that IBD indicates somewhere in their publication whether or not the trading day met the FTD requirements. That is, they calculate it for everyone. Is that not the case? bz
Perhaps you are referring to what they title "The Big Picture".
Here they recap the day, call FTD or not, and give their count of distribution days during confirmed uptrends.
Thanks, you are probably right. I have not been looking at the Big Picture but will include it in my future scans. thx, bz
[QUOTE=buzzman;17860]Mike, thank you. That all makes sense. But, I got the impression that IBD indicates somewhere in their publication whether or not the trading day met the FTD requirements. That is, they calculate it for everyone. Is that not the case? bz[/QUOTE]
Buzzman,
I have been away and so this answer is late. I was attending what IBD calls Market School, a new seminar that they have recently established. The seminar was actuall fabulous. I will report on that seminar in a later post. It relates to your question. It is the Big Picture column that discusses all follow-through days. What is kind of hidden is the FTD threshold. Prior to year 2000 a 1% threshold was used. After this date 1.25% can be used however sometimes this is adjusted for market volatility such as what we often see in a bear market.
So, what is a follow-through day? When the market has been declining in a correction there comes a day that the market closes up either from the day before or earlier in the day. This last part can be seen as a wide range day that closes in the upper half of the range (a shakeout day or hammer candle). Anyway, that day is called a Rally Day or day 1 of a rally attempt. It does not mean that the market is in a confirmed rally yet, it does however mark the beginning of a potential rally. On the next two days we will not call a FTD. Too many shorts are being covered in the first few days of a rally to understand the real buying action of the institutional players. On day 4 or later we now watch for a day that moves up more than 1.25% on volume higher than the day before. This must occur on one of the following indices: S&P 500, NASDAQ or NYSE Composite. Sometimes the Dow Industrials are used for this but remember it is an index of only 30 stocks. When this move up on higher volume occurs we call it a follow-through day. If the Rally Day is undercut on an intra day basis the process resets and we start looking for a Day 1 again.
Mike, thank you for getting back to me. Your FTD explanation is very clear.
Do you also use HGSI? It appears that HGSI is an extension of Value Line. I am exploring it with a trial at the moment.
[QUOTE=buzzman;17929]Mike, thank you for getting back to me. Your FTD explanation is very clear.
Do you also use HGSI? It appears that HGSI is an extension of Value Line. I am exploring it with a trial at the moment.[/QUOTE]
Buzzman, I do use HGSI. My subscription just ran out. I am waiting for the new version to come out before reinstating my subscription. It is in beta test and may come out any day now. I know of no relationship to Value Line.
Mike,
How much is the subscription to HGSI?
Thanks, it appears to be quite powerful. bz
[QUOTE=adam ali;17932]Mike,
How much is the subscription to HGSI?[/QUOTE]
Something like $600 per year. You can buy it monthly also. The free trial is 45 days.