bonds

pascal,

i would be interested to see what the mf into treasuries looks like in the next few sessions. i think the next great trade may be found in the long bond. irrespective of what happens with the greek situation; and regardless if equities trade higher or not, being long bonds, may be the play. while bonds are negatively correlated with stocks at the moment, as they well should be during a growth phase in the economy, they could still become positively correlated with equities, as they were through much of the u.s. qe/zirp regime as a result of ecb/qe.

with the exception of the u.s. and u.k. most of the central banks are in the easing mode i.e. ecb, boj et al, which means they're gobbling up government debt as fast as it can be issued. this of course, leaves less government debt for the rest of us. in answer to this growing shortage, corporations have seized the opportunity to issue more debt, and in this low yield environment investors have taken on more corporate credit risk than they have before. but, i don't think the corporate supply will be enough to offset a squeeze in treasuries.

the zb/es spread is also nearing support, so there is also some technical justification, as well.

[QUOTE=gapcap1;29466]i think the next great trade may not be found in the long bond.[/QUOTE]

Gary,

I think you accidentially typed the word "not" in the sentence above?

Harry

[QUOTE=Harry;29468]Gary,

I think you accidentially typed the word "not" in the sentence above?

Harry[/QUOTE]

indeed. ty !

btw, i think you mis-spelled "accidentally"

[QUOTE=gapcap1;29469]indeed. ty !

btw, i think you mis-spelled "accidentally"[/QUOTE]

Apparently my "smart phone" was not so smart!

[QUOTE=Harry;29471]Apparently my "smart phone" was not so smart![/QUOTE]

ahh...so, you accidentally mis-spelled accidentally. -g

Yes, I will post on this thread when I see somthing interetsing with bonds.

I was expecting bonds to attract money after the dovish Fed speak, but this is not the case yet.

Only the 5 years seem to be attracting money for now. I would like to see both the 10Y and the 20Y to break above the average TEV Gray line.


Pascal

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[QUOTE=gapcap1;29466]pascal,

i would be interested to see what the mf into treasuries looks like in the next few sessions. i think the next great trade may be found in the long bond. irrespective of what happens with the greek situation; and regardless if equities trade higher or not, being long bonds, may be the play. while bonds are negatively correlated with stocks at the moment, as they well should be during a growth phase in the economy, they could still become positively correlated with equities, as they were through much of the u.s. qe/zirp regime as a result of ecb/qe.

with the exception of the u.s. and u.k. most of the central banks are in the easing mode i.e. ecb, boj et al, which means they're gobbling up government debt as fast as it can be issued. this of course, leaves less government debt for the rest of us. in answer to this growing shortage, corporations have seized the opportunity to issue more debt, and in this low yield environment investors have taken on more corporate credit risk than they have before. but, i don't think the corporate supply will be enough to offset a squeeze in treasuries.

the zb/es spread is also nearing support, so there is also some technical justification, as well.[/QUOTE]

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/draghi-s-qe-crusade-seen-challenged-by-hoarders-amassing-bonds[/url]

[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/us-markets-ecb-bonds-idUSKBN0LO0VP20150220[/url]

[url]http://seekingalpha.com/article/2937866-5-disturbing-indicators-on-the-efficacy-of-the-ecbs-quantitative-easing[/url]

[QUOTE=ilonaross;29475][url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/draghi-s-qe-crusade-seen-challenged-by-hoarders-amassing-bonds[/url]

[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/us-markets-ecb-bonds-idUSKBN0LO0VP20150220[/url]

[url]http://seekingalpha.com/article/2937866-5-disturbing-indicators-on-the-efficacy-of-the-ecbs-quantitative-easing[/url][/QUOTE]

well, that a little disconcerting;
would rather see a bearish sentiment expressed...

Although the 10Y seems to be attracting money, the 20Y is not.
Buying bonds might be early.


Pascal

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thanks, for the update...

[QUOTE=gapcap1;29482]thanks, for the update...[/QUOTE]

No problem.

Bonds moving higher today, which everybody noticed already, while market hesitates to push higher.


Pascal

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